Tim's Takeaways: Week 16
Check back here every week to listen to Tim: analyze what we saw, discuss who's trending up or down, and jump to some wild conclusions.
Waiver Gem TEs Continue to Shine
If you’re like me, you either draft a TE very early, or very late. And I mean very late. I started Cameron Brate this week, if that helps put it into perspective. I’ll take any production I can get until I discover a reliable waiver-wire TE. A diamond in the rough, if you will.
There’s one every year. Last year it was Logan Thomas. The year before it was Darren Waller, even Tyler Higbee for a late-season stretch. Unfortunately for me, I whiffed on this years two TE gems, but it may not be too late for you. If you’re a jerk like me (or owned George Kittle/Logan Thomas) look no further than Dawson Knox and Dalton Schultz.
Knox now has a TD in four straight games. Dalton Schultz has six
or more receptions in three straight games. They have more than proved their fantasy worth for the past month. Both were likely scooped up by last week, but they may still be out there. Knox and Schultz are still available in roughly 30 percent of leagues. Don’t be like me and wait to see it for “one more week” before you trust them. Grab them and start them now. They’ve earned it.
If you secure one of them, be grateful for what you have, because some people don’t have tight ends.
Justin Jefferson is the ALPHA
I had been in denial for a while. Never about the fact that Jefferson was more physically gifted than Thielen, because that much is obvious. I was in denial that he was the alpha WR1 in this offense. Thielen has been productive for so long it almost seemed insulting to suggest a player that has been there for one year had snagged his crown. But it can no longer be written off.
Over the last three weeks, Jefferson has averaged 7.3 receptions, 108.6 rec yards, and 22.2 fantasy points per game. While Thielen has seen his targets, receptions, rec yards, AND fantasy points decline in each game during this span. To be fair, Thielen had a 20+ yard reception called back in each of the past two games. He is still an incredibly talented WR that is one of the best bets in the league for a TD every week. This is not intended to be a diss on him at all. But make no mistake, Jefferson eats first.
Time to Panic on AJB?
In three full games this season, Brown has averaged 9.6 fantasy PPG. Some players averaging more: Zach Pascal, Quintez Cephus, KJ Osborn, Van Jefferson... You didn’t draft any of those guys nearly as high as AJ Brown (at least I hope you didn’t). Heck, you probably didn’t draft them at all. So why are they outproducing your WR1? I wish I could tell you, because I’d like to know myself.
AJB has yet to register more than 50 yards in any game, and you can’t even blame the matchups. Arizona, Seattle, and Jacksonville (his opponents during his three full games) all have some of the worst graded CB groups in the league according to ProFootballFocus. Weeks 1-2 you could argue Julio Jones was eating into his targets (which were low to begin with on a run-first offense) but in week 3 with Julio inactive, he still came up short. Argh.
I’m not ready to give up on a player as talented as AJ Brown, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t panicked. Enough so that benching him this week against the number one ranked Buffalo Bills defense is a strong possibility.
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Tim Brosnan, Fantasy Sports Analyst/Freelance Journalist
Tim Brosnan is a college-educated sports journalist from the New Haven, Connecticut area.
The Playbook by CommishFFP
Brosnan earned his Bachelor's Degree from Castleton University where he majored in Media & Communication, with a focus in Journalism.
During his tenure as the sports editor of the Castleton Spartan newspaper, Brosnan created the segment 'Tim's Fantasy Tips'. It began as a simple weekly start/sit column, but since then, the idea has grown into so much more.
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