Tim's Takeaways: Week 16
Check back here every week to listen to Tim: analyze what we saw, discuss who's trending up or down, and jump to some wild conclusions.
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Kyle Pitts is Who We Thought He Was Turns out Kyle Pitts is who we thought he was: a generational TE talent. Or at least, that’s what most of us thought he was. Those of us who watched the tape, or paid any attention to his measurables anyway. Pitts naysayers were quick to bang the drum and take a victory lap after a sluggish start, but it didn’t take him very long to not only justify his ADP, but set an historic pace. In just two weeks, Pitts has gone from fantasy TE14 and a “bust” to TE4 on a PPG basis and potentially the best rookie TE of all-time. It’s too early to call just yet, but thanks to consecutive performances of 9-119-1 and 7-163, he now has the most yards by a rookie TE through six games in NFL history. He is also the youngest TE in history with at least 150 yards in a game. Needless to say, he’s on pace for several rookie TE records, and a stellar career. Not for nothing, but he may have also passed Calvin Ridley as the primary pass-catcher on the Falcons offense. In the words of Brett Kollman, “Pitts is on pace for nearly 1,200 yards this season and the Falcons didn’t figure out how to use him until like two weeks ago. Dude is different.” If you read my blog, you’d know I said something similar while telling you to target Pitts in 2021 drafts. Is this relevant? No. Does it give me an excuse to toot my own horn? Yes, yes it does. If you drafted Pitts, congrats. You now have an excuse to toot your own horn as well. What's Going On With Calvin Ridley? Speaking of Ridley… There is something very bizarre going on. Despite averaging over 10 targets per game and playing on an average of 86.4 percent of snaps this season, he has yet to top 80 yards or 19.5 (PPR) points in any game. Why? There’s no way he isn’t talented enough. I simply refuse to believe that. So why is he WR28 on a PPG basis? It’s not as if Matt Ryan isn’t playing well, or his surrounding talent isn’t taking attention away from him (see above section). So how is he averaging less PPG than Emmanuel Sanders or Sterling Shepard? How does he have less 20+ point games than Zach Pascal? It’s not as if he hasn’t had any positive matchups. The man’s most recent matchups were against Washington, the Giants and Miami for cryin’ out loud. So what the heck is going on? And where do we go from here? Do we sell? Hold? Buy-low? All I have is questions. Unfortunately, I don’t have many answers. All I know is you can’t sell at anything close to what he’s worth if whoever you’re trying to trade with has been paying attention. I guess you can buy-low, if the price is right. But with Kyle Pitts emerging, and some of his best matchups already behind him, I’m not entirely convinced you want to. My brain says he’s seeing too many looks and is too talented to continue to underperform, but my heart has already been broken by him. My official advice is to hold/buy-low and hope for the best, because at this point hope is all we can do. Dropping Allen Robinson is NOT Out of The Question Through seven weeks, Allen Robinson has quite possibly been the biggest bust in all of fantasy football. He has single-digit PPR points in 6/7 games this season. He has no more than 10.4 points or 63 yards in any game. He’s finished with less than 40 yards in 5/7 and has just one game with more than four catches. Everything I’ve seen from the Bears QB situation tells me it isn’t going to get much better. Fields looks brutal, currently sporting a 2:6 TD-INT ratio. Andy Dalton did target Robinson 11 times in week one during his only full game of the season, but it only amounted to 35 yards. To be honest, even with how bad Fields has been, I’m not sure Dalton starts another game for the Bears this season. It sounds crazy to dump Robinson, a player who was widely regarded as a second-round pick this season, but through seven games it has been nothing but pain. You can’t trust him enough to start him, and you won’t get anything but a bag of chips in a trade. My advice is to dump him (unless you’re in a super deep league) and let him become someone else’s problem. If you’ve been hanging on and hoping for the best so far, you’ve done nothing but burn a roster spot. Why put up with it any longer? Do yourself a favor: cut him and avoid a weekly headache. OR… Consider the fact I’m the one telling you to drop him, which means there’s about a 75 percent chance he returns to form and has several career games in a row, just because I jinxed him.  Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
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Darrell Henderson to the Moon Darrell Henderson has proved to be one of the best values of 2021 drafts. In five games this season, Henderson is averaging 96 scrimmage yards, and 18.2 (PPR) PPG. He has displayed an elite floor with no less than 16 touches or 15.7 points in any game. He’s getting it done as a receiver with at least one catch and 17 receiving yards in every game. He’s also proven to be a TD machine, with five total TDs in five games! This guy is kinda crazy. And yet, it still feels like he’s flying under the radar. After a two-TD, 24.7-point performance in week six, he can no longer be ignored. Well on his way to an 1,000-yard season as the lead back on one of the best scoring offenses in the league, the sky is the limit for Darrell Henderson. Or better yet, the moon. His next three games are against Detroit, Houston, and Tennessee. I’ll take one ticket on the Darrell Henderson rocket-ship please. Jonathan Taylor RB1 season has arrived After an odd first three weeks where Taylor didn’t find the end-zone, and finished with single-digit PPR points twice, concern was starting to develop. The panic button for the consensus first-rounder was looking more and more enticing by the week. But now the panic button feels like a distant memory. For the past three games JT has been elite. Taylor has racked up 441 scrimmage yards, five total TDs, and 81.1 PPR points over the last three weeks. In other words: an average of 147 yards and 27 points per game. No less than 114 yards or 20.4 points in any game during this span. Hopefully you bought low while you could because you’ve more than missed your chance my friend. If you held strong, congrats on the diamond hands. Your RB1 has arrived. Amari Cooper is a flex It may be time to face facts and accept the harsh reality. Amari Cooper is a flex. It sounds crazy, I know. After an explosive week one, where he finished with a gorgeous 13-139-2 stat-line, leaving week one as the WR1 in PPR scoring, success has been hard to come by. In his five games since then, Cooper has:
His absolute max score during this span is just 15.9 points. He has fallen all the way down to WR16, which is being buoyed by his huge week one. Without that game, Cooper is averaging just 10.4 (PPR) PPG. Which would make him WR54 on PPG basis, just behind Marquez Callaway. With the emergence of Dalton Schultz, and CeeDee Lamb basically stealing the show for the past two weeks, I’m afraid Cooper has moved out of must-start territory. I’m not saying he shouldn’t be played. He still offers WR1 upside on any given week. But if this first quarter of the season is any indication, there’s more risk involved than originally anticipated. Expectations should simply be tempered moving forward, especially with Michael Gallup returning to the fray soon. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Waiver Gem TEs Continue to Shine If you’re like me, you either draft a TE very early, or very late. And I mean very late. I started Cameron Brate this week, if that helps put it into perspective. I’ll take any production I can get until I discover a reliable waiver-wire TE. A diamond in the rough, if you will. There’s one every year. Last year it was Logan Thomas. The year before it was Darren Waller, even Tyler Higbee for a late-season stretch. Unfortunately for me, I whiffed on this years two TE gems, but it may not be too late for you. If you’re a jerk like me (or owned George Kittle/Logan Thomas) look no further than Dawson Knox and Dalton Schultz. Knox now has a TD in four straight games. Dalton Schultz has six or more receptions in three straight games. They have more than proved their fantasy worth for the past month. Both were likely scooped up by last week, but they may still be out there. Knox and Schultz are still available in roughly 30 percent of leagues. Don’t be like me and wait to see it for “one more week” before you trust them. Grab them and start them now. They’ve earned it. If you secure one of them, be grateful for what you have, because some people don’t have tight ends. Justin Jefferson is the ALPHA I had been in denial for a while. Never about the fact that Jefferson was more physically gifted than Thielen, because that much is obvious. I was in denial that he was the alpha WR1 in this offense. Thielen has been productive for so long it almost seemed insulting to suggest a player that has been there for one year had snagged his crown. But it can no longer be written off. Over the last three weeks, Jefferson has averaged 7.3 receptions, 108.6 rec yards, and 22.2 fantasy points per game. While Thielen has seen his targets, receptions, rec yards, AND fantasy points decline in each game during this span. To be fair, Thielen had a 20+ yard reception called back in each of the past two games. He is still an incredibly talented WR that is one of the best bets in the league for a TD every week. This is not intended to be a diss on him at all. But make no mistake, Jefferson eats first. Time to Panic on AJB? In three full games this season, Brown has averaged 9.6 fantasy PPG. Some players averaging more: Zach Pascal, Quintez Cephus, KJ Osborn, Van Jefferson... You didn’t draft any of those guys nearly as high as AJ Brown (at least I hope you didn’t). Heck, you probably didn’t draft them at all. So why are they outproducing your WR1? I wish I could tell you, because I’d like to know myself. AJB has yet to register more than 50 yards in any game, and you can’t even blame the matchups. Arizona, Seattle, and Jacksonville (his opponents during his three full games) all have some of the worst graded CB groups in the league according to ProFootballFocus. Weeks 1-2 you could argue Julio Jones was eating into his targets (which were low to begin with on a run-first offense) but in week 3 with Julio inactive, he still came up short. Argh. I’m not ready to give up on a player as talented as AJ Brown, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t panicked. Enough so that benching him this week against the number one ranked Buffalo Bills defense is a strong possibility. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Cordarelle Patterson, very much a thing Despite playing no more than 40 percent of snaps in any game this season, it seems apparent that Cordarelle Patterson is the Falcons most effective offensive weapon thus far. I say offensive weapon because I’m not really sure what to call him. He can be played at both WR and RB in most leagues, he gets carries (at least six attempts in all four games so far, one rushing TD) but he also lines up as a WR and runs routes (has at least six targets and is averaging 74 rec. yards over last three games, four rec. TDs). Not to mention, he has already entered the ‘greatest returner of all time’ discussion. So what else can you call him but a damn weapon? Sure, Mike Davis has been solid, leading the backfield in snaps and carries, scoring no less than 10.2 points in any game this season, but it’s clear Patterson is the “RB/guy getting touches out of the backfield” to own in Atlanta. He has now outscored Davis three weeks in a row. He is simply too dynamic to ignore with his current volume/usage. After exploding for 34.6 points and three TDs in week four, he is averaging 24.9 PPG over his last three games, and is a must-add to all rosters. Sam Darnold...fantasy monster? Leaving the Jets was the best thing that could have ever happened to Sam Darnold. Who could have guessed that, right? Through four games, the former USC Trojan has 10 total TDs, (five rushing, most in the league) and just three turnovers. As of Sunday, he now has three consecutive games with 300+ passing yards. To put that into perspective, in his entire Jets career (38 games) Darnold threw for 300+ yards just four times. Right now, he’s 3/4 in that category to begin his Panthers career. He’s averaging 297.1 passing yards, and 23.7 fantasy points per game, with no less than 18.9 points in any game this season! With a receiving core as loaded as his, and Adam Gase no longer holding him back, it’s no wonder the talented young QB is having success. Darnold is quickly working his way into the fantasy QB1 discussion. Currently, he is QB5 just behind Tom Brady, and is *checks notes* available in over 80 percent of ESPN leagues… You know what to do people. Najee Harris is a bonafide RB1 If you drafted Harris as an RB1, looks like you got what you bargained for. While it’s true his efficiency is leaving much to be desired (has yet to rush for over 65 yards, could probably be blamed on his O-line). Still, he is averaging 22.8 fantasy points per game over the last three weeks. So, how’s he getting it done you ask? The answer: elite volume. The rookie workhorse is averaging 21.3 touches per game during the aforementioned span. The craziest part about his last three games? Harris has 25 receptions. Not only is that more than anyone on the Steelers weeks 2-4, it’s more than anyone in the league… DJ Moore is second with 24. No other Steelers RB is even coming close to Harris in snaps or touches this season, so I don’t see any reason why it shouldn’t continue. Just like Chancellor Palpatine said to a young Anakin Skywalker, “Najee, we will watch your career with great interest.” Start: Jameis Winston vs Washington Football Team Since his 5-TD performance in week one, Winston has cooled off significantly, but I think he heats back up this week. Coming off a season-high 226 yards passing, expect his numbers to continue their upward trend against a WFT secondary that is quickly making a case as worst in the league. Washington has allowed an average of 307 pass YPG, a TD-to-INT ratio of 10:1, and a league-high 27.8 fantasy PPG to opposing QBs. Most recently they were torched by Matt Ryan for 300 total yards, four TDs and 29.02 fantasy points. This is as good a week as any for Jameis to rack up points. Let’s just hope Taysom Hill doesn’t steal all the TDs again. - Tim Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Derrick Henry's receiving usage trending up In week three, Derrick Henry finished with three catches for 31 yards. This may not seem like a big deal until you put it into perspective. Never (and I mean never) in his five-year NFL career has Derrick Henry registered three consecutive games with at least three catches. Never in his career had he registered three such games in a single season! Through three games in 2021, that is no longer the case. Henry’s previous single-season career-high for receptions is just 19. His single-season career-high for receiving yards is just 206. He is currently on pace to break both of those totals by week six. He’s more than halfway there already. So, you’re telling me a 2,000-yard rusher, possibly the most dominant force in the league, is now going to be involved as a pass-catcher as well? As if he wasn’t lethal enough… Well folks, it may be too early to call it just yet, but there’s a chance we’re looking at the RB1 overall. Mike Williams is a MUST-START WR1 If you go back far enough on my twitter, you’ll see I’ve been a huge Mike Williams fan since he was at Clemson. I was willing to go as far as calling him a “generational 50/50 ball talent”. I wouldn’t throw that term around lightly. His sophomore year in the NFL, he finished with 10 TDs but just 664 yards on only 43 catches. The next season he finished with 1,000+ yards on 49 catches but was rocked by TD regression, only scoring twice. So, it’s been established he has the potential for double-digit TDs, and the potential to be a thousand-yard receiver. The talent has been there, it never left. It has always been a question of consistency. Well, this year he’s looking ready to finally put it all together. In the past two seasons, he was targeted 10+ times just thrice. We are three weeks into 2021 and he already has two such games, with no less than 9 targets in any game. Entering week four, Williams has 31 targets, 22 receptions, four TDs, is averaging 98.3 yards and 25.8 PPG. He is currently on pace to double his career-high in receptions and targets. If he is guaranteed the volume (which, so far, it seems he is) I don’t know if there’s any receiver I’m more willing to bet on than Mike Will. If this production continues, he is without a doubt THE steal of the 2021 fantasy season. Mattison is the Best Insurance Policy in Fantasy Dalvin Cook is excellent when he’s on the field. The only problem is: he’s not always on the field. It's fair to say of the consensus RB1s in fantasy, Dalvin Cook is the most injury-prone. Since entering the league in 2017, not once has he played more than 14 games in a season. In week three, Alexander Mattison showed (once again) why he is the most valuable insurance policy/rb4 stash you can ask for. Against the Seahawks, he received a ridiculous 34 touches, translating that into 23.1 fantasy points without even scoring a TD. Similar to Kareem Hunt, this is a guy talented enough to start on another team, and he’s serving as a stud RBs backup. Unfortunately he doesn’t have the same role as Hunt, which provides him with weekly flex value. BUT he is arguably just as valuable. With Mattison, you’re basically guaranteed RB1 production for a few games every year. He has some standalone value on your bench and provides leverage in trade negotiations, even if you don’t have Cook, and especially if you’re trading to the person who does. As of now, he is available in just over 35% of ESPN leagues. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
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AuthorTim Brosnan, Fantasy Sports Analyst/Freelance Journalist About: Tim Brosnan is a college-educated sports journalist from the New Haven, Connecticut area. Featured on: https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/09/8-waiver-wire-stashes-fantasy-football/ https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/11/14-players-to-buy-low-sell-high-fantasy-football-november-2021/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nfl_article&utm_content=14-players-to-buy-low-sell-high-fantasy-football-november-2021 The Playbook by CommishFFP thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Brosnan earned his Bachelor's Degree from Castleton University where he majored in Media & Communication, with a focus in Journalism. During his tenure as the sports editor of the Castleton Spartan newspaper, Brosnan created the segment 'Tim's Fantasy Tips'. It began as a simple weekly start/sit column, but since then, the idea has grown into so much more. Brosnan has taken his experience/passion for pro football/fantasy sports and combined it with his journalistic know-how in order to bring you a completely original, well-informed, multi-layered fantasy football advice experience. We hope you enjoy. Archives
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