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Tim's Takeaways: Week 16

12/27/2022

Aaron Jones or AJ Dillon?

In each of the last four games, AJ Dillon has finished with at least 11 touches (15+ in each of his last three) and at least one TD. He has also outscored Aaron Jones (PPR) in every game during this span.

It’s not that Jones is playing badly, he has actually been a top-12 RB and scored 18+ points twice during this span. Unfortunately, this past week was the second time during this span his snap share has dipped below 40 percent. It is once again #FreeAaronJones.

All of a sudden Jones is in a committee, one that he may not be the leader of. If you have both Dillon and Jones, suddenly it’s not such an easy choice between the two.

  Thanks to Jones nagging ankle injury, and Dillon’s recent production, I have to give Dillon the edge. But that doesn’t mean I like it.

Can you trust the Raiders this week?

It’s no secret the Raiders have struggled recently. But nobody has felt the effects more than Davante Adams. His last three PPR finishes: WR39, WR59 and WR67. He has averaged a measly 7.1 PPG during that span.

Josh Jacobs has not been an exception either. His last two PPR finishes: RB20 and RB39. He has averaged a pedestrian 9.5 PPG during this span.

Now with a dangerous matchup against the 49ers in week 17, there is suddenly an elephant in the room. Can you sit them? Are you even allowed to?

  I say no, you’re not. They’ve both shown too much this season and are seeing too much volume (even in this recent stretch) to ever consider benching. Yes, the matchup is scary, but since when are we worried about them being matchup-dependent?

Snap out of it.

Yes, things have been troublesome but you do not sit your studs. Especially with fantasy championship glory on the line.

Mark Andrews is not a must-start

Remember what I said (way back when) about not sitting your studs? Well, Andrews is an exception. I am personally giving you permission to rip off the bandaid.

   He has not scored a TD or over 13.0 fantasy points since week six. He has just two games with double-digit PPR points since then. In fact, he has not scored double-digit PPR points in any of his last four games.

The TE landscape is brutal, believe me, I know. I’m not saying play someone off the waiver wire over Andrews, but at this point, someone like Dalton Schultz, Tyler Higbee, or Evan Engram has displayed much more upside/consistency in recent weeks.

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Tim's Takeaways: Week 15

12/27/2022

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Trevor Lawrence has arrived

After a four-TD effort against Dallas in week 15, it can be confirmed: Lawrence had that dawg in him. It was his second consecutive game with over 300 passing yards and four total TDs.

  Since week 10, Lawrence is the QB4 in total points. He has just one game below 20 fantasy points during that span, and three with 24+. He is beginning to blossom into a franchise-QB right in front of our eyes. Just think how scary this offense will get when Calvin Ridley returns to the field in 2023.

Trevor Lawrence to the moon.

Jerrick Mckinnon: Not a fluke

For the second consecutive week, Jerrick McKinnon has finished as THE RB1. During the surge, McKinnon has accounted for at least 120 total yards, seven receptions, and two TDs in each game. He now has a combined 66.6 PPR points over the last two weeks.

With over 55% of snaps and a 65% route participation (15 receptions on 17 targets) in back-to-back games, there’s no reason to expect his opportunity doesn’t continue.

  Given his recent production and a plus matchup with the Seahawks in week 16, maybe we get our third consecutive 30-bomb from McKinnon.

Is Joe Mixon a must-start?

In Mixon’s last three games he has finished as RB32, RB16, and RB26. In those games, he has a combined 32.2 points (AVG: 10.7 PPG). The max total he’s been able to manage during this span is just 12.6 points.

Remove that 50-bomb from week nine and he has just one game above 20.0 points this season, and just four above 12.9.

  He faces difficult matchups against the Patriots and Bills over the next two weeks. I still say he is worth a start thanks to his high floor (just two single-digit PPR games this season) but more so as a flex than an RB1.

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Tim's Takeaways: Week 13

12/6/2022

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Christian Watson is insane

In the past four weeks, Watson has delivered finishes of WR3, WR8, WR10, and WR8. He has at least 21.0 PPR points in four straight. He has eight TDs in that span.

What’s truly astounding is that he doesn’t have more than four catches in any of those games.

I don’t understand how he keeps doing it, but he does. Normally, based on volume, I would say he can’t keep it up. But you literally cannot sit this dude right now. He is what we in the biz refer to as a 'league-winner'.

Garrett WilSZN

This dude is a monster. A bonafide stud. An alpha WR1. My best friend. After setting a new career-high with 162 yards in week 13, Wilson now has at least 90 yards and 17 PPR points in four of his last five games.

  Since Mike White took over (I still hate you Zach Wilson) Garrett is averaging 25.3 fantasy points per game.

His fantasy playoff schedule includes matchups with the Lions, Jaguars, and Seahawks. Moving forward, I don’t think it’s outrageous to call him a borderline WR1.

Curtains for Kamara?

For the second game in a row, the fourth time in his last five games, and the sixth time this season Kamara finished with single-digit PPR points in week 13. This time he delivered his worst game of the season (5.7 PPR points) finishing with just 37 yards on 14 touches.

  It was the third time in his last four games he failed to top 50 total yards or 7.5 PPR points. He hasn’t just been bad, he has been horrible.

  To add insult to injury, he has a bye in week 14. Depending on how you look at it, that might even be a good thing. Now you won’t have to look on in horror as you’re forced to start him.

  If you failed to make playoffs, he is likely the reason. If you have, there is a reason for optimism. According to FantasyPros, he has the easiest remaining schedule for a RB. He faces Atlanta, Cleveland, and Philly in the fantasy playoffs. If you weathered the storm, you might just be rewarded for your suffering.

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Tim's Takeaways: Week 11

12/6/2022

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Holy kickers

If your league doesn’t play with kickers than I am truly sorry because you missed a hell of a week.

  To put it into perspective, there were more kickers with 10+ points (13 ) than QBs with 20+ (10) this week. Seven kickers finished with 13+ points, three finished with 17+, and two scored 22+.

   You know it was a good week for the position when the top-scoring kicker outscored Saquon Barkley (5.5 PPR points), Justin Jefferson (6.6), Dameon Pierce (3.7), and Mike Williams (2.5) combined.

Is Josh Allen in a slump?

Sure, if you’re holding him to the standard he set in weeks 1-6 (AVG 28.8 PPG) it could be argued Allen is in a slump. In the four games since, he is averaging just 18.6 PPG.

That is just truly dreadful. Absolutely abysmal. I mean, can you believe the nerve of this guy? Not scoring us 25+ points every game… How dare he? I’m not sure I like his attitude.We should probably get rid of him for less than peak value, right?

  If you couldn’t tell where I was going with this, the answer is a resounding no. Yes, the 12.6-point performance (by far his worst of the season) was not ideal, but that doesn’t mean it’s time to panic about Allen. He’s finished with less than 17.6 points just once this season, and still has more games above 25 points than games below 20.

  If you’re the Allen manager in your league, have some patience. He will come back around. If you’re not, your window to buy him may never get larger than it is at this moment.

Zach Wilson is poison

I am a Jets fan, so this may get graphic.

  I would rather have Baker Mayfield as my QB than Zach Wilson. There. I said it. Now I need to go take a shower.

No, but really, Wilson is horrible. So horrible he has replaced Mayfield as my least favorite NFL QB. Out of 33 qualified QBs, Wilson is 32nd in passer rating, 33rd in completion percentage, and 31st in TD:INT ratio. Joe Flacco has more TD passes in (5) in three games than Wilson has (4) in seven.

   I didn’t like his tape coming out of BYU, I didn’t like his tape after his rookie season, and I don’t like his tape even when the Jets win. If being a good athlete was all it took to be a good NFL QB, Terrelle Pryor would be a four-time league MVP by now.

After his nine-completion outing in week 11, I’ve seen enough. The Jets have seen enough. Fantasy managers of any Jets players have seen enough. If it’s not bad enough he’s been awful, he’s dragging some very talented fantasy players down with him. Garrett Wilson, Michael Carter, Tyler Conklin, and Elijah Moore are all players that could be reliable fantasy options with Joe Flacco (or literally anybody else) at the helm. Unfortunately, they are hardly worth rostering with Wilson in charge.

There is plenty of evidence of all the aforementioned players being more (consistently) productive without Wilson. But that’s enough of my ranting for now. Let us all join hands and manifest Wilson getting benched next week.

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Tim's Takeaways: Week 10

12/6/2022

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Can I Sit Deebo?

Can I sit Deebo? I need to know, because I’m at that bridge and I’m about to cross.

This week, for the sixth time in eight games, Samuel finished with less than 45 receiving yards. It was his third game with less than three catches, his fifth game with less than 13.0 PPR points, and his second game (in a row) with less than 10.0 points. He has just one game above 16.0 points this season.

  I’ve had it up to here (my hand is above my head) with Samuel this year. He’s not playing like a WR1, he’s hardly a WR2 at this point. Blame it on Aiyuk’s emergence, blame it on CMC commanding RB1 volume, blame it on whatever you want. I only blame myself for drafting him.

Olave Hits Rock Bottom

Olave had his worst game of the season in week ten, finishing with three catches for 40 yards and 7.0 PPR points. That sounds like a negative stat, but it is actually the opposite.

  This is the part where I reveal I tricked you with the title.

40 yards and 7.0 points are his floor so far. Do you realize how good that is? I can certainly name a few players who have displayed a much lower floor than that. If you pictured Kyle Pitts while reading that sentence, then you are just like me.

Olave has set a phenomenal enough pace as a rookie that I personally am not even upset by his lackluster performance. In fact, he deserves to take a week off as far as I’m concerned… Well, as long as he gets back to it next week.

Studs Delivering Duds

Imagine this lineup: Justin Herbert, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Cooper Kupp, AJ Brown, George Kittle, Amari Cooper, and the Cowboys D/ST.

  That exact lineup would have been projected 130+ this week. Instead, that lineup delivered a grand total of 32.1 PPR points.

Some are less surprising than others (I’m looking at you Herbert) but, nonetheless it was a major disappointment for a wide range of players (and one D/ST) that have been mostly known for their dependability this season.

   It just goes to show how volatile the NFL can be. It makes you wonder if you can’t count on the Eagles and Bills to win, or any of those studs to score over 10 PPR points, what can you count on? You know how the saying goes: any given Sunday.

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Tim's Takeaways: Week 8

12/6/2022

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Amon-Ra SZN on hold?

St. Brown’s 39-point explosion in week two feels like a distant memory now… This past week was the fifth consecutive game he has failed to deliver WR1 numbers…

  Since week two, he has had no games over 14 PPR points, just two games over 9.5 points, and two games missed with an injury. He now sits at WR25 in PPR scoring. It begs the question: is he still a must-start?

  I say yes. Do I have any reasoning to support that other than because I want it to be true? No, I don’t. But I’m holding on to hope St. Brown is a WR1 until it’s clear I’m in denial.

Drop Aaron Rodgers

It’s time to let go. Yes, I’m talking to you (and me) the guy holding onto Aaron Rodgers because you believe the back-to-back MVP will eventually figure it out. Give it up man. It’s over. He’s gone.

  If he can’t get it done against the Lions 32nd ranked scoring defense, when can he get it done?

It’s week ten, Rodgers hasn’t had one single QB1 performance all season. The absolute max total he’s been able to manage is 16.8 points. We can blame it on poor receivers. We could say he washed up. We could argue till the cows come home, and it won’t change anything. Good matchup or bad, he has no business being on a fantasy roster.

Why do the Lions hate D’Andre Swift?

16 percent. D’Andre Swift played just 16 percent of snaps in week nine. I know he’s been dealing with injuries lately (per usual) but if it’s that bad, why even let him play?

I’m convinced the Lions just don’t like him.

Check the numbers. He has 10 touches or less in each of his last four games. He has just four games in his CAREER with more than 14 carries. Meanwhile, Jamaal Williams has eight such games in his two-year stint with the Lions, and five alone this season!

  Yet, Swift is so damn good on a per-touch basis that you still can’t sit him. In the last four games (the ones where he’s touched the ball 10 times or less) he averages 11.6 points per game. Imagine what this guy could do with a full workload. I just want to know whose coffee he pissed in.

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Tim's Takeaways: Week 16

Tim's Takeaways: Week 16

Tim's Takeaways: Week 15

Tim's Takeaways: Week 13

Tim's Takeaways: Week 11

Tim's Takeaways: Week 10

Tim's Takeaways: Week 8

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