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Tim's Takeaways: Week 10

11/17/2021

Buy Low on Jalen Hurts

He has a negative matchup this week, a bye on the horizon, and is coming off the three worst fantasy performances of his career. There will never be a better time to get Hurts on your fantasy team.

It’s not always pretty (less than 200 passing yards in five of his last six games), but he still provides an ELITE rushing floor (just three games with less than 50 rush yards this season, no less than 30 in any game). You have to keep in mind, he has started less than one full season’s worth of games. He’s steadily improving, and when he figures it out he is going to be scary.  Like prime Cam Newton/Russell Wilson scary. At least, for fantasy football purposes anyways.

He has a lot of dynasty appeal, but I still love him this season for redraft leagues as well. Why? So glad you asked. He is playing against the rest of the NFC East (including two games against Washington) during the fantasy football playoffs. Strike while the iron is hot, and buy-low while you can.

Super Cam is Baaaack

Riding the momentum Cam Newton provided, the Panthers stomped the best team in the league, with authority. He has made an immediate impact on a team that retains much of the same core it had when he left. He was seen on the sideline leading the huddle, commanding the respect of his teammates just three days after (re)signing with the team. If there’s any organization that knows what Cam is capable of, its the Panthers.

   If he is truly back, there isn’t a spot in the NFL you’d rather him be than Carolina. It feels like he has returned home and nature is healing. If he can score 11 fantasy points on two touches (more points than Jared Goff in a game that went to OT) I’m excited to see what he can do when they open up the playbook for him and turn him loose. I’m not saying he is an immediate fantasy QB1, because the most recent sample of him as a starting QB was not incredibly promising. BUT… I’m also not going to deny he could just as easily become the fantasy monster we once knew him as. As you saw on Sunday, he is still one of the leagues premier red zone weapons.

In week ten, Newton became the first QB to score a TD on his first rush of the season, and throw a TD on his first pass of the season in 30 years.

  As for Sam Darnold? He just lost his job. Without question. I mean, a man who hasn’t played one snap of football this season just provided the team with more of a spark than Darnold has in the last six weeks. He may as well start packing his things now because chances are he’s not in Carolina next season.

It may be time to sell Damien Harris

Harris has served fantasy managers well this season. Before missing week ten with a concussion, he had scored (at least) a rushing TD in five straight games. He has three games with over 100 yards rushing this season, and even after missing a game, he is RB20 in PPR scoring. There. You can use that information when trying to sell him this week. The reason I say that is because Rhamondre Stevenson is a beast.

In Harris’s absence, Stevenson took his 20 carries for 100 yards and two TDs. There were a few encouraging things about this game from a fantasy perspective, unless you own Damien Harris that is. For one, Stevenson finished with an impressive 27.4 PPR points, which is more points than Harris has in any game this season. What else? Stevenson caught four passes on five targets (his second game with three or more targets/receptions this season). Harris has never been targeted more than three times OR caught more than two passes in a game in his entire NFL career. So, clearly the Pats believe Rhamondre brings something to the table as a receiver that Harris does not.

Moving forward, best-case scenario for Harris owners is he takes the Legarette Blount role and Stevenson takes the James White role. But the thing with Stevenson is, he offers the best of both roles. He is like a Legarette Blount who can operate as a pass catcher, or a James White that can actually run between the tackles. Either way he lacks the weakness of the opposite player. Harris however, although he is explosive/very effective on the goal line, doesn’t offer that same kind of versatility.

Well… Not to overreact, but the dynamic Stevenson (who had an incredible preseason by the way) just made a strong case for more playing time this past week. If that means he eats in Harris’s workload even a little it spells doom because (with no receiving floor to fall back on) he basically depends on lions share volume for fantasy value. I feel like it’s time to get out while you can.

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Tim's Takeaways: Week Nine

11/9/2021

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Mike Williams' Downward Slide

The old Mike Williams has reared his ugly head. I’m sorry Mike, that was mean. You’re not ugly. It’s just an expression. What was I saying again? Oh yeah, fantasy football.

After a ridiculous start to the season (weeks 1-5) where Mike Will averaged 10 targets, 23.2 fantasy points, 94.2 yards per game and racked up six TDs, he was beginning to look like the receiver we all expected him to be coming out of Clemson. It has, unfortunately, been all downhill from there.

Williams has now delivered three consecutive single-digit fantasy performances, which makes that four out of his last five. He has not seen more than five targets or caught more than two passes at any point during this span. Thanks to a 50-yard bomb in week nine, he at least topped 27 yards this time. So, there’s that. Unfortunately there hasn’t been much of anything else… Except disappointment.

But this is the same old story with Williams, isn’t it? He embodies the term boom-or-bust. He has one of the highest ceilings of any receiver I’ve ever seen (12 career games with 21+ fantasy points, 3 games with 30+) But he also tends to disappear entirely at times (28 games with less than 10 fantasy points post-rookie year). I’m not saying he isn’t starting material for fantasy any more, but all of a sudden, there’s going to be a lot more caution involved. I hate to break it you but your window to trade him at WR1 value has closed. You either are going to have to offload him for whatever you can get, or continue to ride the rollercoaster.

Tee Higgins is the New Robert Woods

By that I mean: there’s nothing sexy about throwing him into your lineup, but you can always trust him. Higgins has been nothing but a model of consistency through two years in the NFL. He may not have a huge ceiling, but the man is a walking double-digit PPR game. No, literally.

He has now registered double-digit fantasy points in 16 of his 21 career games (76 percent). He has had AT LEAST 13 points (or more) in 13 of those 16 games. He’s been targeted seven or more times in 14 of his 21 games. But get ready for this next one… So far, he doesn’t have one full game, in his NFL career, with less than five targets. Not one. Isn’t that insane?

When you start Tee Higgins, you know what you’re going to get. A reception hog with a safe floor. Exactly what Robert Woods used to be, and what he’s getting back to being. But that is a takeaway for another time.

Sam Darnold Belongs on the Bench

Not just in fantasy, but in real life. I was an advocate of his talent for the last year. I’ve gone on record saying that he would have a bounce back season as the starting QB of the Panthers. After an impressive start, that seemed like a great call. I might have even taken a small victory lap.

Weeks 1-4, Darnold had no less than 18 fantasy points in any game, 10 total TDs, and nearly matched his career 300-yard game totals with the Jets in less than five games. But since then, he has been arguably the worst starting QB in the NFL.

Not only have the Panthers lost five of their last six games after a 3-0 start, Darnold is responsible for nine turnovers and just two TDs during that span. He has failed to throw for 175 yards or score a TD in each of his last three games. Since week five, he has topped 200 passing yards one time. He is literally averaging 6.6 fantasy points per game. Disastrous is the first word that comes to mind.

The worst part about it is, DJ Moore (who began the season with 20+ points in three of his first four games) is suffering as a result. He has no more than 13 PPR points in any game since week five, and is averaging just 9.9 PPG.

Not that I think PJ Walker is the answer, but at this rate, Sam Darnold simply cannot be allowed to continue to drag this team down. Although, it may already be too late…

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Tim's Takeaways: Week Eight

11/9/2021

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Houston's Backfield Is A Mess

You would think after Mark Ingram was traded, David Johnson or Phillip Lindsay would be in line to see increased touches. Instead it was Rex Burkhead who led the backfield in receptions and total touches in week eight. Just like we all planned. But he wasn’t even the one who led the team in carries. It wasn’t Lindsay or Johnson either. Instead, it was Scottie Phillips who paced the Texans with five carries. Because that makes total sense, right?

For those of us hoping for an increased role for Johnson, a player who has proved his fantasy worth as a receiving back multiple times over (including last year’s fantasy playoffs) it looks like we’re SOL. Even in a game where they were trailing for it’s entirety and were in a pass-heavy game script, David Johnson touched the ball just three times. Phillip Lindsay has struggled with efficiency all year. The former 1,000-yard rusher appears to be chopped liver at this point, playing just 13 percent of snaps, and is not worth weekly fantasy consideration.

I wouldn’t recommend any Houston RB, but it appears Rex Burkhead is the one who benefited most from the departure of Ingram. The former Patriot played on 49 percent of Texans snaps this week and is, at the very least, worth a flex stash.

Michael Carter Breakout Campaign Starting To Take Shape

In week eight, nobody’s stock went up more than Michael Carter. With Mike White under center, it appears the rookie RB has finally broken out. Carter’s role has grown over the past month, outscoring his previous fantasy total for four consecutive weeks. He now has four games in a row with double-digit PPR points. He has played 70+ percent of snaps two weeks in a row.

The Jets have shown that Carter is their preferred goal-line back, which is ideal for fantasy purposes. But perhaps the best/most surprising part of this recent swing is his involvement in the receiving game. In two games with Mike White under center, Carter has a combined 23 targets, 17 receptions and 162 receiving yards. In week eight, Carter took his season-high 24 touches for 172 total yards, a TD and a career-high 32.2 fantasy points. He now has no less than 14.8 points in any game since week four.

With top RBs dropping like flies, I’d try to trade for Carter if you can. He has two tough matchups in a row, but after that, three incredibly soft ones. He will also be facing both Miami and Jacksonville in the fantasy playoffs. All of a sudden, Carter has entered the high-end RB2 conversation, with a chance to push for RB1 numbers. That sounds insane to say about someone who plays for the Jets, but let’s be honest, they have proved to be scrappier than anyone had imagined this season.

Terry McLaurin Rollercoaster Continues

After another disappointing performance from the Washington offense, Terry has officially become the poster-child for the term “boom or bust”. After a three-catch, 6.3-point performance against the Broncos, McLaurin now has 10.2 points or less in five of his eight games this season. He is clearly an outstanding talent, with 25 or more (PPR) points in his other three games, but despite averaging 10 targets per game McLaurin has been largely unreliable.

It pains me to say that about one of my favorite players, but at the same time I refuse to admit it is his own fault. He has never had consistent high-level QB play, and that’s just a fact. Unfortunately, it looks like that isn’t going to change anytime soon, as long as Taylor Heinicke remains at QB for the Football Team. Heinicke started relatively hot, with multiple TDs in three of his first four games. He has just three total TDs in the four games since. As much as I hate to say it, until Fitzpatrick returns Terry can’t be considered a set-it and forget-it. He is more accurately considered a low-end WR2 with WR1 upside. Excuse me while I go into the other room and cry.

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Tim's Takeaways: Week 16

Tim's Takeaways: Week 10

Tim's Takeaways: Week Nine

Tim's Takeaways: Week Eight

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