Tim's Takeaways: Week 16
Check back here every week to listen to Tim: analyze what we saw, discuss who's trending up or down, and jump to some wild conclusions.
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Amon-Ra St. Brown...Must Start? Other than D’Andre Swift or (maybe) TJ Hockenson, the Lions offense has been a fantasy wasteland this season. But a new face has emerged in their absence. Amon-Ra St. Brown has become a must-start. Since Swift got hurt in week 12, St. Brown has drawn no less than 11 targets in any game. That’s four games in a row. That’s 46 targets over the past month. Only Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson have more than that. Pretty good company to be in, if you ask me. St. Brown has no less than 8 catches or 73 yards in any game during this span. He has 23.5 (or more) PPR points in three of these four, and no less than 15.3 points at any point during his hot-streak. Once again, nobody else in the league can say that other than Cooper Kupp. That’s how good St. Brown has been. Maybe it’s because there’s no Swift. Maybe when Swift returns the fun is over. Or maybe, the Lions have figured out they have a beast that needs to be fed. Is it any coincidence that they’ve won two of their last four games after going 0-10? Whatever the case, if you have St. Brown, you better ride him till the wheels fall off… because the way he’s playing, there’s no way to justify leaving him on the bench. AB: League Winner. With Chris Godwin done for the season, and Mike Evans dealing with a hamstring injury (an injury that tends to linger… see Jones, Julio), AB (love him or hate him, the greatest statistical WR of this generation) is now atop a WR depth chart that happens to catch passes from the greatest QB of all time. Some things just don’t require too much thought. This is one of them. In his first game since these new injury developments, AB put up 10 catches for 108 yards, in a blowout game no less. Is anyone surprised? That is just another day at the office for Brown. If you read between the lines, you’d find he actually has added motivation to go off for the rest of the season. He can earn an extra $1 million in incentives if he racks up 11 catches, 281 yards and two TDs over the next two games. If you think him and Brady are not aware of that, I’m sorry to say: you’re wrong. Those totals would equate to 51.1 fantasy points, or 25.5 PPG over the next two weeks. Mark my words, Antonio Brown is going to be a league-winner. What did I say About Tee Higgins?? A few weeks ago, I posed the question: 'Is Tee Higgins a must-start?' We continue to view Chase that way, so why not Higgins? After all, he had been more heavily targeted all season and had gained more yardage than Chase in nearly every game for the last eight weeks. Then, in classic fashion, (because I jinxed him) he put up just two catches for 23 yards in week 15. Great call Tim, way to go man! Well… After an insane game where Higgins racked up career-highs in catches (12) receiving yards (194) and fantasy points (43.4) in week 16, I can’t imagine starting him is much of a question anymore. Consider this my victory lap. I would have taken one last week, but I was too busy hiding under a rock.  Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
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Javonte Williams is a Must Start I think I’ve seen what I needed to see. Javonte Williams broke out in his first game without Melvin Gordon, and now the beast is out of it’s cage. Upon Gordon’s return, Williams was out-touched (24-16) yet still managed to put forth another explosive day. Even with Melvin on the field, Williams posted two TDs, 83 total yards and 21.3 fantasy points on 16 touches. Sure, it was against the Lions, but now that (I firmly believe) he has hit his stride, I don’t know if there’s anyone that can slow him down. Certainly not any of the opponents he’ll be facing this season. FantasyPros gives the Broncos the sixth-easiest remaining schedule for an RB. All his fantasy playoff matchups check out as green. Considering the RB landscape is the way it is, I find it hard to imagine you have the depth to justify sitting him. And even if you did, I’d urge you to reconsider. Can you tell I feel strongly about this yet? Dawson Knox = TE1 Kittle, Kelce, Andrews, Knox. Those are my top four TEs ROS (rest of season). I’m not sure what Darren Waller's deal is, but to be honest I’m not sure it would be much different if he was healthy. Knox has been fantastic this season. Just about as good as you can ask for from a TE you probably picked up off the waiver wire. After racking up seven catches for 60 yards and a TD (19.0 PPR points) in week 14, Knox now has at least 14 points in six of his last nine games. He has 18 or more in four of his last eight. And by the way, one of the games in that span was his first game back from IR, and the other was the historically insane wind game versus the Pats (in which he still saw six targets). Don’t count those two games and he has at least 7.5 points in every game this season. You can’t even say that about Travis Kelce. And trust me, I know because I have Kelce, and played against Knox this week. I didn’t have fun. Knox also has more TDs this season (8) than Kelce (6) and he missed three games with a broken hand. But anyways… Knox: certified good at football. Unless you have one of the names mentioned above, he needs to be in your lineup. Taysom Hill is Fantasy Gold! Taysom Hill as an NFL QB… It’s not pretty. Nobody is saying it is. But if you can get over that fact, avert your eyes from the television, and direct your attention to the fantasy app, you will see what I’m talking about. I mean, what’s the difference between him and Jalen Hurts in that regard, am I right? For the record, I’m a Hurts believer and would like to point out he is still very early in his career. But the philosophy is the same. Your fantasy QB doesn’t have to be the best real-life QB to rack up points for you. Hill now has 20+ fantasy points in each of his two starts this season. This is largely due to the fact that he’s accumulated 174 yards on 22 carries during this span. I mean, think about it… He threw four interceptions in week 13 and still scored 20.6 fantasy points. When will it get worse for a QB than throwing four interceptions? If he can survive that, then it’s scary to imagine what he can do on a good day. And make no mistake, despite the fact he scored 26.3 fantasy points in week 14, he did not have a very good day. And yet, 26.3 fantasy points. You get the picture? Derek Carr users (me last week) I’m talking to you. Swallow your pride, and trade good football for fantasy points. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Javonte Williams is who we thought he was We all knew it was going to happen, the question was just a matter of when. Javonte Williams has been a bomb waiting to explode for a while now. The signs have been staring us in the face for weeks. He came in to this game leading the league in forced missed tackles. After finishing with 4.4 YPC this week, he’s now registered 4.4 YPC or better in nine of 12 games this season. The only thing that was standing in his way? Melvin Gordon. Now, there’s nothing wrong with Gordon. In fact it’s the opposite. He’s too talented of a runner not to demand a relatively even split of the backfield. Well, for the first time all season, he was ruled out in week 13, and it came at a crucial time. Many leagues had their playoff standings decided this week, and while Williams may not have won you your game, he certainly wasn’t the reason why you lost. In his first game with the backfield to himself, Javonte was on full display. He showed elite tackle breaking, and the ability to capitalize on a full workload. He finished with season high’s in touches (29) total yards (178) and fantasy points (29.8). When it was all said and done, Williams was THE fantasy RB1 in week 13. He racked up an insane 73 yards after contact, and just looked flat-out, well, how we expected him to. If Melvin Gordon is not in Denver next season, after what I’ve seen from Williams this season, I’d be willing to take him as a top-12 overall player next year. You heard it here first. Is Tee Higgins a must-start? If you read these takeaways last week, you’d be well aware of just how Jamaar Chase’s production has suffered lately. However, one thing I failed to mention was how Tee Higgins has affected that fall-off as well. For the fifth time this season, and for the second week in a row, Tee Higgins was more heavily targeted (14) than Chase (8) in week 13. Higgins recorded season-highs in receptions (9) rec. yards (138) and added a TD, making it his second consecutive game with 100+ yards, a TD, AND 20+ PPR points. It also marked the fourth time in their last five games where Higgins finished with more yards and receptions than Chase. I’m not saying Higgins is a more talented player, but he’s certainly no slouch. He’s got more experience as a pro, and apparently supreme trust/confidence from his QB. Believe it or not, he is actually averaging more targets per game (8.2) than Chase this season (7.5). So it begs the question. Is Tee Higgins a must-start? We still kinda see Chase that way don’t we? So why don’t we give Higgins the same treatment? Maybe we should start. Put some respect on Hunter Renfrow’s name Speaking of two weeks in a row with 100+ yards… Hunter Renfrow has quietly broken out lately. For the second consecutive week, he finished with 9+ targets, 8+ catches, 100+ yards and 19+ fantasy points. You might be able to attribute some of this production to Darren Waller being banged up this week and last, but he has been producing even with Waller on the field. He has at least 17.5 (PPR) points in four of his last five games. Ahem, those are borderline (fantasy) WR1 numbers right there. Now, I’m not gonna jump the gun and call Renfrow a WR1, but he is kinda ballin'. If anything, give me him as a reliable every-week PPR WR2. He’s very low-key because he usually relies on volume to produce. He’s normally a low-yardage high-catch game type of guy. Or at least, that tends to be the perception. The truth is he’s finished with 55 yards or more in seven of his 12 games this season, and 70+ in four of his 12. This is no fluke. The man may not look like your average WR1, but he is no joke. Don’t forget, he caught the game-winning TD for Clemson in the National Championship not once, but TWICE… He is an established red-zone threat with a pair of hands that can be counted on. In PPR scoring, what more can you ask for? It may be time to put some respect on his name. As far as I’m concerned, he has nothing left to prove. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Has Ja'Marr Chase been figured out? Chase through seven weeks:
Chase the past four weeks:
It’s fair to ask the question: has Ja'Marr Chase been figured out? With half of a season worth of tape on him, it would appear to be the case. Do I necessarily think that’s possible for a player as talented as him? Temporarily, I do. But now there is a month’s worth of tape on what defenses are doing to slow him down. I’ll go on record right now and say I think he adapts/adjusts and figures it out. When, however, is anyone's guess. At the moment, he goes from a borderline WR1 to a sort of sketchy WR2 until he gets it going again. If you play in a dynasty league, this may be the best (and only) chance you’ll ever get to buy-low, and I highly recommend making a play for him. Although he may have hit a bit of a rookie wall, he’s going to be special for many years. Is Aaron Jones Chopped Liver? After finishing as a top-five fantasy RB in consecutive seasons (2019-2020), Aaron Jones' status as an RB1 seemed solidified. The #FreeAaronJones movement had been completed, fantasy fans everywhere rejoiced. But by week 13 2021, it seems like we’re going to have to get our picket signs back from out of the basement and protest once more. So far this season, Jones has just three games north of 20 PPR points. He has four games with single-digit PPR points, three of which have come in his last five games. He hasn’t delivered an RB1 performance since week eight. He hasn’t topped 60 yards rushing since week six. He’s rushed for 25 yards (or less) in three of his last five games. He has just one game with more than 12 carries during that span. He is currently sitting at RB11 in PPR scoring and most of it is being buoyed by his massive 41-point game against the Lions in week two. Without that, he’s arguably a borderline RB2. I hate to say it, but he looks like chopped liver. A lot of it has to do with AJ Dillon of course. Dillon is simply too talented not to have a role and, quite frankly, is outshining Jones lately. They activated Jones for week 12, only to have him take a back seat to Dillon in snaps, carries, receptions, yards AND fantasy points. In two and a half games as the Packers RB1, Dillon has more games with 20+ carries than Jones has all season. That alone should tell you all you need to know. At this point, you can’t trade Jones for anything close to a decent ROI. I personally offloaded Jones a few weeks ago because I saw the writing on the wall, but even I couldn’t predict how much love Dillon would get, and how much he’d make the most of his opportunities. If your trade deadline hasn’t passed, the best you can hope for is for Jones to go off once more and then try to get rid of him for face value, because at this point I’m afraid he’s going to finish in low-end RB2 territory. I’d be worried about starting him going into the fantasy playoffs. Cordarelle Patterson is an RB1 He just is. There’s no ifs, ands, or buts about it. The last time he didn’t finish with either a TD, 100 total yards or double-digit touches was week one (if you don’t count the week 10 game where he got hurt). After a massive 100-yard, 27-point, two-TD performance in week 12, Patterson now has 18+ (PPR) points in 6/9 full games this season. He has no less than 14 points in any full game since week one. Remember how I said I got rid of Aaron Jones above? That was on a team where I trusted Cordarelle Patterson as my RB1 for the rest of the season. That’s how much I believe in his talent and his role in this Arthur Smith offense. ProFootballFocus actually has him graded as the best RB in football after twelve weeks, just slightly above Jonathan Taylor. I will go ahead and crown him as the waiver-wire steal of the year right here and now. I will also crown him as a RB1, or WR1, or just the ultimate flex. Whatever you want to call him. He is, plain and simple, one of the best players in fantasy football for the rest of the year, despite a difficult schedule upcoming. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Joe Mixon flying under the radar In a week where it felt like just about every RB1 finished with 20+ points (Cook, Swift, CMC, Conner, Chubb, etc.) guys like Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler stood out above the rest. But there’s one name that has been flying under the radar. Joe Mixon has quietly been one of the most reliable RBs in fantasy for the last six weeks. After a 120-yard two-TD performance in week 11, he’s now delivered at least 24.3 (PPR) points, and finished with at least 90 total yards in four of his last five games. He has seven (that’s right, SEVEN) games in a row with at least one TD. And yet, it seems like nobody is talking about him. It feels like nobody is giving him the credit he deserves. If you ask me, he has officially settled the debate this season. There can no longer be any doubt. Joe Mixon is a bonafide RB1, and a lock as a top-15 overall pick in next years drafts. Should you worry about Russell Wilson? Yes. You should. The appeal when drafting Russell Wilson this season, at least for me, stemmed a lot from Matthew Berry’s “100 facts for the 2021 fantasy football season” Influenced by this, I felt safe selecting Wilson in several drafts this season. Now, this is not me blaming Matthew Berry. After all, the article is called 100 FACTS because at the time that’s what they were. The first five on the list have to do with Russ. Over the past three seasons, only two QBs had 30+ games with multiple TD passes. Patrick Mahomes and Wilson. Wilson was THE ONLY QB with at least 30 TD passes in each of the last two seasons. Before 2021, he had done that in four straight seasons. Only Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton had more rushing yards than Wilson during that span. The last time he didn’t finish as a top-10 fantasy QB, Tim Tebow and Mark Sanchez were starting in the NFL. Last but not least (and this one was my favorite) he had never missed a game in his NFL career. Add that all up, and how could you possibly go wrong with Russ as your QB1? Well. It figures that the year I’m confident in all this knowledge is the year it all goes out the window. Not only has he missed several games for the first time, he isn’t rushing like he normally does. At this point last season, Wilson had seven games with five or more rush attempts and 20+ rushing yards. So far in 2021 (granted he missed some time) he has just two such games. He had just one game with less than 10 fantasy points last season. He is three for his last three in that category, and has yet to score a TD since week four. So yeah, I’m a little worried about Russ. That being said, I have faith he pulls through. I just don’t know if you can start him in fantasy until he does. How bout them Eagles? Don’t look now, but the Eagles defense may be a league-winner. After an 11-point performance (three TO’s, one TD) against the Saints, they’re now averaging 10.5 fantasy PPG over their last four games. And that’s including a -3-point performance against the Chargers in week nine. Remove that game, and they’re averaging 14 fantasy PPG since week seven. They’ve (when I say they I mean Darius Slay) have a TD in three of their last four games. During this span, Philly has racked up five TO’s and seven sacks. But this isn’t why I say the Eagles will be league-winners. You may want to sit down for this next part. Are you ready? Their remaining opponents: @NYG, NYJ (week 14 BYE) WAS, NYG again, WAS again. They are currently the ninth-highest scoring fantasy D/ST, and are owned in just 12.6 percent of ESPN leagues. Sure, anything can happen. But knowing their opponents and the way they’ve played recently, what do you think is most likely to happen? I know which side of the fence I’m on. It’s time for you to pick one because, once the rest of your league notices their remaining schedule, they could quickly become a hot commodity. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ |
AuthorTim Brosnan, Fantasy Sports Analyst/Freelance Journalist About: Tim Brosnan is a college-educated sports journalist from the New Haven, Connecticut area. Featured on: https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/09/8-waiver-wire-stashes-fantasy-football/ https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/11/14-players-to-buy-low-sell-high-fantasy-football-november-2021/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nfl_article&utm_content=14-players-to-buy-low-sell-high-fantasy-football-november-2021 The Playbook by CommishFFP thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Brosnan earned his Bachelor's Degree from Castleton University where he majored in Media & Communication, with a focus in Journalism. During his tenure as the sports editor of the Castleton Spartan newspaper, Brosnan created the segment 'Tim's Fantasy Tips'. It began as a simple weekly start/sit column, but since then, the idea has grown into so much more. Brosnan has taken his experience/passion for pro football/fantasy sports and combined it with his journalistic know-how in order to bring you a completely original, well-informed, multi-layered fantasy football advice experience. We hope you enjoy. Archives
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