Tim's Takeaways: Week 16
Check back here every week to listen to Tim: analyze what we saw, discuss who's trending up or down, and jump to some wild conclusions.
Has Ja'Marr Chase been figured out?
Chase through seven weeks:
Chase the past four weeks:
It’s fair to ask the question: has Ja'Marr Chase been figured out? With half of a season worth of tape on him, it would appear to be the case. Do I necessarily think that’s possible for a player as talented as him? Temporarily, I do. But now there is a month’s worth of tape on what defenses are doing to slow him down. I’ll go on record right now and say I think he adapts/adjusts and figures it out. When, however, is anyone's guess.
At the moment, he goes from a borderline WR1 to a sort of sketchy WR2 until he gets it going again. If you play in a dynasty league, this may be the best (and only) chance you’ll ever get to buy-low, and I highly recommend making a play for him. Although he may have hit a bit of a rookie wall, he’s going to be special for many years.
Is Aaron Jones Chopped Liver?
After finishing as a top-five fantasy RB in consecutive seasons (2019-2020), Aaron Jones' status as an RB1 seemed solidified. The #FreeAaronJones movement had been completed, fantasy fans everywhere rejoiced. But by week 13 2021, it seems like we’re going to have to get our picket signs back from out of the basement and protest once more.
So far this season, Jones has just three games north of 20 PPR points. He has four games with single-digit PPR points, three of which have come in his last five games. He hasn’t delivered an RB1 performance since week eight. He hasn’t topped 60 yards rushing since week six. He’s rushed for 25 yards (or less) in three of his last five games. He has just one game with more than 12 carries during that span. He is currently sitting at RB11 in PPR scoring and most of it is being buoyed by his massive 41-point game against the Lions in week two. Without that, he’s arguably a borderline RB2. I hate to say it, but he looks like chopped liver.
A lot of it has to do with AJ Dillon of course. Dillon is simply too talented not to have a role and, quite frankly, is outshining Jones lately. They activated Jones for week 12, only to have him take a back seat to Dillon in snaps, carries, receptions, yards AND fantasy points. In two and a half games as the Packers RB1, Dillon has more games with 20+ carries than Jones has all season. That alone should tell you all you need to know.
At this point, you can’t trade Jones for anything close to a decent ROI. I personally offloaded Jones a few weeks ago because I saw the writing on the wall, but even I couldn’t predict how much love Dillon would get, and how much he’d make the most of his opportunities. If your trade deadline hasn’t passed, the best you can hope for is for Jones to go off once more and then try to get rid of him for face value, because at this point I’m afraid he’s going to finish in low-end RB2 territory. I’d be worried about starting him going into the fantasy playoffs.
Cordarelle Patterson is an RB1
He just is. There’s no ifs, ands, or buts about it. The last time he didn’t finish with either a TD, 100 total yards or double-digit touches was week one (if you don’t count the week 10 game where he got hurt). After a massive 100-yard, 27-point, two-TD performance in week 12, Patterson now has 18+ (PPR) points in 6/9 full games this season. He has no less than 14 points in any full game since week one. Remember how I said I got rid of Aaron Jones above? That was on a team where I trusted Cordarelle Patterson as my RB1 for the rest of the season. That’s how much I believe in his talent and his role in this Arthur Smith offense. ProFootballFocus actually has him graded as the best RB in football after twelve weeks, just slightly above Jonathan Taylor.
I will go ahead and crown him as the waiver-wire steal of the year right here and now. I will also crown him as a RB1, or WR1, or just the ultimate flex. Whatever you want to call him. He is, plain and simple, one of the best players in fantasy football for the rest of the year, despite a difficult schedule upcoming.
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Tim Brosnan, Fantasy Sports Analyst/Freelance Journalist
Tim Brosnan is a college-educated sports journalist from the New Haven, Connecticut area.
The Playbook by CommishFFP
Brosnan earned his Bachelor's Degree from Castleton University where he majored in Media & Communication, with a focus in Journalism.
During his tenure as the sports editor of the Castleton Spartan newspaper, Brosnan created the segment 'Tim's Fantasy Tips'. It began as a simple weekly start/sit column, but since then, the idea has grown into so much more.
Brosnan has taken his experience/passion for pro football/fantasy sports and combined it with his journalistic know-how in order to bring you a completely original, well-informed, multi-layered fantasy football advice experience.
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