Tim's Takeaways: Week 16
Check back here every week to listen to Tim: analyze what we saw, discuss who's trending up or down, and jump to some wild conclusions.
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Aaron Jones or AJ Dillon? In each of the last four games, AJ Dillon has finished with at least 11 touches (15+ in each of his last three) and at least one TD. He has also outscored Aaron Jones (PPR) in every game during this span. It’s not that Jones is playing badly, he has actually been a top-12 RB and scored 18+ points twice during this span. Unfortunately, this past week was the second time during this span his snap share has dipped below 40 percent. It is once again #FreeAaronJones. All of a sudden Jones is in a committee, one that he may not be the leader of. If you have both Dillon and Jones, suddenly it’s not such an easy choice between the two. Thanks to Jones nagging ankle injury, and Dillon’s recent production, I have to give Dillon the edge. But that doesn’t mean I like it. Can you trust the Raiders this week? It’s no secret the Raiders have struggled recently. But nobody has felt the effects more than Davante Adams. His last three PPR finishes: WR39, WR59 and WR67. He has averaged a measly 7.1 PPG during that span. Josh Jacobs has not been an exception either. His last two PPR finishes: RB20 and RB39. He has averaged a pedestrian 9.5 PPG during this span. Now with a dangerous matchup against the 49ers in week 17, there is suddenly an elephant in the room. Can you sit them? Are you even allowed to? I say no, you’re not. They’ve both shown too much this season and are seeing too much volume (even in this recent stretch) to ever consider benching. Yes, the matchup is scary, but since when are we worried about them being matchup-dependent? Snap out of it. Yes, things have been troublesome but you do not sit your studs. Especially with fantasy championship glory on the line. Mark Andrews is not a must-start Remember what I said (way back when) about not sitting your studs? Well, Andrews is an exception. I am personally giving you permission to rip off the bandaid. He has not scored a TD or over 13.0 fantasy points since week six. He has just two games with double-digit PPR points since then. In fact, he has not scored double-digit PPR points in any of his last four games. The TE landscape is brutal, believe me, I know. I’m not saying play someone off the waiver wire over Andrews, but at this point, someone like Dalton Schultz, Tyler Higbee, or Evan Engram has displayed much more upside/consistency in recent weeks.  Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
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Trevor Lawrence has arrived After a four-TD effort against Dallas in week 15, it can be confirmed: Lawrence had that dawg in him. It was his second consecutive game with over 300 passing yards and four total TDs. Since week 10, Lawrence is the QB4 in total points. He has just one game below 20 fantasy points during that span, and three with 24+. He is beginning to blossom into a franchise-QB right in front of our eyes. Just think how scary this offense will get when Calvin Ridley returns to the field in 2023. Trevor Lawrence to the moon. Jerrick Mckinnon: Not a fluke For the second consecutive week, Jerrick McKinnon has finished as THE RB1. During the surge, McKinnon has accounted for at least 120 total yards, seven receptions, and two TDs in each game. He now has a combined 66.6 PPR points over the last two weeks. With over 55% of snaps and a 65% route participation (15 receptions on 17 targets) in back-to-back games, there’s no reason to expect his opportunity doesn’t continue. Given his recent production and a plus matchup with the Seahawks in week 16, maybe we get our third consecutive 30-bomb from McKinnon. Is Joe Mixon a must-start? In Mixon’s last three games he has finished as RB32, RB16, and RB26. In those games, he has a combined 32.2 points (AVG: 10.7 PPG). The max total he’s been able to manage during this span is just 12.6 points. Remove that 50-bomb from week nine and he has just one game above 20.0 points this season, and just four above 12.9. He faces difficult matchups against the Patriots and Bills over the next two weeks. I still say he is worth a start thanks to his high floor (just two single-digit PPR games this season) but more so as a flex than an RB1. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Christian Watson is insane In the past four weeks, Watson has delivered finishes of WR3, WR8, WR10, and WR8. He has at least 21.0 PPR points in four straight. He has eight TDs in that span. What’s truly astounding is that he doesn’t have more than four catches in any of those games. I don’t understand how he keeps doing it, but he does. Normally, based on volume, I would say he can’t keep it up. But you literally cannot sit this dude right now. He is what we in the biz refer to as a 'league-winner'. Garrett WilSZN This dude is a monster. A bonafide stud. An alpha WR1. My best friend. After setting a new career-high with 162 yards in week 13, Wilson now has at least 90 yards and 17 PPR points in four of his last five games. Since Mike White took over (I still hate you Zach Wilson) Garrett is averaging 25.3 fantasy points per game. His fantasy playoff schedule includes matchups with the Lions, Jaguars, and Seahawks. Moving forward, I don’t think it’s outrageous to call him a borderline WR1. Curtains for Kamara? For the second game in a row, the fourth time in his last five games, and the sixth time this season Kamara finished with single-digit PPR points in week 13. This time he delivered his worst game of the season (5.7 PPR points) finishing with just 37 yards on 14 touches. It was the third time in his last four games he failed to top 50 total yards or 7.5 PPR points. He hasn’t just been bad, he has been horrible. To add insult to injury, he has a bye in week 14. Depending on how you look at it, that might even be a good thing. Now you won’t have to look on in horror as you’re forced to start him. If you failed to make playoffs, he is likely the reason. If you have, there is a reason for optimism. According to FantasyPros, he has the easiest remaining schedule for a RB. He faces Atlanta, Cleveland, and Philly in the fantasy playoffs. If you weathered the storm, you might just be rewarded for your suffering. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Holy kickers If your league doesn’t play with kickers than I am truly sorry because you missed a hell of a week. To put it into perspective, there were more kickers with 10+ points (13 ) than QBs with 20+ (10) this week. Seven kickers finished with 13+ points, three finished with 17+, and two scored 22+. You know it was a good week for the position when the top-scoring kicker outscored Saquon Barkley (5.5 PPR points), Justin Jefferson (6.6), Dameon Pierce (3.7), and Mike Williams (2.5) combined. Is Josh Allen in a slump? Sure, if you’re holding him to the standard he set in weeks 1-6 (AVG 28.8 PPG) it could be argued Allen is in a slump. In the four games since, he is averaging just 18.6 PPG. That is just truly dreadful. Absolutely abysmal. I mean, can you believe the nerve of this guy? Not scoring us 25+ points every game… How dare he? I’m not sure I like his attitude.We should probably get rid of him for less than peak value, right? If you couldn’t tell where I was going with this, the answer is a resounding no. Yes, the 12.6-point performance (by far his worst of the season) was not ideal, but that doesn’t mean it’s time to panic about Allen. He’s finished with less than 17.6 points just once this season, and still has more games above 25 points than games below 20. If you’re the Allen manager in your league, have some patience. He will come back around. If you’re not, your window to buy him may never get larger than it is at this moment. Zach Wilson is poison I am a Jets fan, so this may get graphic. I would rather have Baker Mayfield as my QB than Zach Wilson. There. I said it. Now I need to go take a shower. No, but really, Wilson is horrible. So horrible he has replaced Mayfield as my least favorite NFL QB. Out of 33 qualified QBs, Wilson is 32nd in passer rating, 33rd in completion percentage, and 31st in TD:INT ratio. Joe Flacco has more TD passes in (5) in three games than Wilson has (4) in seven. I didn’t like his tape coming out of BYU, I didn’t like his tape after his rookie season, and I don’t like his tape even when the Jets win. If being a good athlete was all it took to be a good NFL QB, Terrelle Pryor would be a four-time league MVP by now. After his nine-completion outing in week 11, I’ve seen enough. The Jets have seen enough. Fantasy managers of any Jets players have seen enough. If it’s not bad enough he’s been awful, he’s dragging some very talented fantasy players down with him. Garrett Wilson, Michael Carter, Tyler Conklin, and Elijah Moore are all players that could be reliable fantasy options with Joe Flacco (or literally anybody else) at the helm. Unfortunately, they are hardly worth rostering with Wilson in charge. There is plenty of evidence of all the aforementioned players being more (consistently) productive without Wilson. But that’s enough of my ranting for now. Let us all join hands and manifest Wilson getting benched next week. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Can I Sit Deebo? Can I sit Deebo? I need to know, because I’m at that bridge and I’m about to cross. This week, for the sixth time in eight games, Samuel finished with less than 45 receiving yards. It was his third game with less than three catches, his fifth game with less than 13.0 PPR points, and his second game (in a row) with less than 10.0 points. He has just one game above 16.0 points this season. I’ve had it up to here (my hand is above my head) with Samuel this year. He’s not playing like a WR1, he’s hardly a WR2 at this point. Blame it on Aiyuk’s emergence, blame it on CMC commanding RB1 volume, blame it on whatever you want. I only blame myself for drafting him. Olave Hits Rock Bottom Olave had his worst game of the season in week ten, finishing with three catches for 40 yards and 7.0 PPR points. That sounds like a negative stat, but it is actually the opposite. This is the part where I reveal I tricked you with the title. 40 yards and 7.0 points are his floor so far. Do you realize how good that is? I can certainly name a few players who have displayed a much lower floor than that. If you pictured Kyle Pitts while reading that sentence, then you are just like me. Olave has set a phenomenal enough pace as a rookie that I personally am not even upset by his lackluster performance. In fact, he deserves to take a week off as far as I’m concerned… Well, as long as he gets back to it next week. Studs Delivering Duds Imagine this lineup: Justin Herbert, Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Cooper Kupp, AJ Brown, George Kittle, Amari Cooper, and the Cowboys D/ST. That exact lineup would have been projected 130+ this week. Instead, that lineup delivered a grand total of 32.1 PPR points. Some are less surprising than others (I’m looking at you Herbert) but, nonetheless it was a major disappointment for a wide range of players (and one D/ST) that have been mostly known for their dependability this season. It just goes to show how volatile the NFL can be. It makes you wonder if you can’t count on the Eagles and Bills to win, or any of those studs to score over 10 PPR points, what can you count on? You know how the saying goes: any given Sunday. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Amon-Ra SZN on hold? St. Brown’s 39-point explosion in week two feels like a distant memory now… This past week was the fifth consecutive game he has failed to deliver WR1 numbers… Since week two, he has had no games over 14 PPR points, just two games over 9.5 points, and two games missed with an injury. He now sits at WR25 in PPR scoring. It begs the question: is he still a must-start? I say yes. Do I have any reasoning to support that other than because I want it to be true? No, I don’t. But I’m holding on to hope St. Brown is a WR1 until it’s clear I’m in denial. Drop Aaron Rodgers It’s time to let go. Yes, I’m talking to you (and me) the guy holding onto Aaron Rodgers because you believe the back-to-back MVP will eventually figure it out. Give it up man. It’s over. He’s gone. If he can’t get it done against the Lions 32nd ranked scoring defense, when can he get it done? It’s week ten, Rodgers hasn’t had one single QB1 performance all season. The absolute max total he’s been able to manage is 16.8 points. We can blame it on poor receivers. We could say he washed up. We could argue till the cows come home, and it won’t change anything. Good matchup or bad, he has no business being on a fantasy roster. Why do the Lions hate D’Andre Swift? 16 percent. D’Andre Swift played just 16 percent of snaps in week nine. I know he’s been dealing with injuries lately (per usual) but if it’s that bad, why even let him play? I’m convinced the Lions just don’t like him. Check the numbers. He has 10 touches or less in each of his last four games. He has just four games in his CAREER with more than 14 carries. Meanwhile, Jamaal Williams has eight such games in his two-year stint with the Lions, and five alone this season! Yet, Swift is so damn good on a per-touch basis that you still can’t sit him. In the last four games (the ones where he’s touched the ball 10 times or less) he averages 11.6 points per game. Imagine what this guy could do with a full workload. I just want to know whose coffee he pissed in. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Etienne SZN is upon us After out-snapping, out-touching and out-producing James Robinson for three straight weeks, it was speculated that we were seeing a change of the guard. The Jags seemed to make that decision final when Robinson received zero touches in week seven. Trading Robinson to the Jets was the icing on the cake. Etienne has registered 100+ total yards in three straight games, with half a workload. Now that his backfield competition is gone and he's slated to get a bump in usage, it's not a stretch to say he could be a top-five (PPR) RB for the rest of the season. Is Olave a WR1? The rookie WR now has four consecutive games with 15+ PPR points. He has either a TD or 100+ yards in every game during that span. Week seven was the third time this season he has seen at least 13 targets in a game. He's averaging 10.6 per game since week two. It begs the question: is Olave a WR1? Maybe not quite yet. For now, he is the highest of the high-end WR2's. However, another 20+ point week and we may have to revisit this discussion. Should we start playing Justin Fields? I know it sounds crazy, but hear me out. Nobody is saying Fields is a terrific QB, but he can run it with the best of them. He has at least 47 yards on the ground in each of his last five games, including 80+ in his last two. All I'm saying is, week seven was the third week in a row Fields has outscored Justin Herbert. Maybe that's an unfair spin, but then again, maybe it's not. After putting up 23 points on MNF, he now has 17+ fantasy points in three straight. I know it's not always pretty, but you can't argue with the points. Wasn't that our motto with Jalen Hurts last season? Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Najee flops again The title says it all. Maybe flop isn’t the right word, but for a RB1, it ISN'T NOT the right word. Sure, he scored a TD in week six which helped keep him afloat. But he once again delivered a majorly inefficient day and finished with less than 50 total yards for the third time this season. He’s not performing like the first-round RB you drafted him to be. He’s hardly delivering flex numbers. He continues to do just enough to get by and nothing more. I hate to say it, but at this point, sitting him would be justified. Time to panic on Herbert? Three out of Herbert’s last four games have resulted in 14.4 points or less. Is it due to Keenan Allen’s absence? Is it due to Mike Williams famous disappearing act? Is it because I bet on him to throw a single TD on Monday night? Do you even know? Because I certainly don’t. By the way, that’s the second game of Herbert’s entire career without a single TD pass, in case you were wondering. My luck in a nutshell. I realize having Herbert as your QB1 is frustrating at the moment but you’re going to have to weather the storm. If anything, I’d look to trade for him if you need a QB because his value will never get lower than it is at this very moment. Once Keenan gets back things should improve, because this is simply not the type of player Herbert is. Buy low on Zeke It’s no secret that Zeke has been disappointing this season. But there’s reason for optimism, and I mean a lot of reasons. It’s a known fact Zeke struggles without Dak and vice versa. So use this as your chance to buy-low. Dak returns this week. They play Detroit (allowing the third-most points to RB even after a bye) and Chicago the following week (allowing the eighth-most points to RBs). Five of the Cowboys next six games after that are positive matchups for Zeke. The usage is there, and the points are about to start following once this offense kicks into gear. I know things have been ugly, but I’m looking to trade for Elliot wherever I need a RB or a flex. Do with that info what you will… Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ It’s Breece time Breece Hall has arrived. The elite college profile has officially translated to the NFL. In week five, Hall accrued 197 total yards and one TD on his way to a career-high (hopefully not for long) 27.7 PPR points. The craziest part about this explosive performance as a rookie? He was tackled on the one-yard line twice or would have had three TDs. Trips to the end-zone are no stranger to Hall, who holds the NCAA record for most consecutive games with a TD. He has now increased his fantasy points in each week since entering the NFL. He currently sits at RB7 behind only Ekeler, Chubb, Barkley, Henry, McCaffery, and Fournette. In other words, literal RB1 company. That’s how good Hall has been. Until this week, he was flying somewhat under the radar. Good luck getting him now. Jacobs RB1 season It was never a question of Jacobs talent. It was a question of how this new coaching staff was going to value/utilize him. Well, after a questionable looking first few weeks… Josh Jacobs has finally established himself as a bonafide RB1. On Monday night, Jacobs picked up 183 total yards and a TD on 26 touches (30.3 PPR points). It marks the second consecutive week Jacobs has recorded over 25 touches, over 170 total yards, and over 30 PPR points. The most encouraging thing from a fantasy perspective: the fact he has at least five catches and 30 receiving yards in each of his last three games. Plain and simple: he cannot be sat, maybe ever again. Tyler Lockett: 2022’s biggest steal Is Lockett the value pick of the year? So far, I say he is. For a guy who was supposed to be down and out going from Russell Wilson to Geno Smith, he’s scoring an awful lot of fantasy points. With a ninth-round ADP, I gotta ask. What the hell were we thinking? It’s Tyler Lockett for Pete's sake. Of course, the fact that Geno Smith and Aaron Rodgers have swapped bodies has a lot to do with it… Nevertheless, we owe the man (Lockett) an apology. Before this week (27.4 PPR points) he wasn’t knocking your socks off. All he was doing was proving to be a consistent PPR weapon. He now has AT LEAST five catches, 76 yards, and 13.1 points in each of his last four games. He is currently the WR7 through five weeks. When it comes to draft day values, he is the first name that comes to mind. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ RBs aren't dead! After a bizarre start for first-round RBs, we finally got some vintage performances. It was a huge week for the RB position. Nine of the top-20 scoring players on Sunday (excluding QBs) were RBs. Nine RBs rushed for over 100 yards, eleven scored over 20 PPR points. Christian Mccaffery and Austin Ekeler are back inside the top-five. Nature is healing. Russell Wilson & Tom Brady: Still good at football Speaking of nature healing… It took long enough but Russell Wilson and Tom Brady turned in signature performances in week four, finishing as QB3 & QB4 respectively. Both accounted for at least three total TDs and 25+ fantasy points. Surprisingly, both lost their game in real-life. Luckily for us, we don’t lose fantasy points for that! They may have let their fans down, but they certainly are back in the good graces of their fantasy managers. Holy Hockenson I will get my shameless brag out of the way now. I had Hockenson as TE ‘start of the week’ this week. Even so, I certainly didn’t expect him to be the highest scoring player in all of week four. The crazy thing about his eight-catch 179-yard two-TD performance? It could’ve been even better. He actually got tackled at the one-yard line, otherwise he would have finished with three TDs and 46.0 fantasy points. That’s nearly twice the amount of points Kyle Pitts has this whole season. Hockenson was a focal point this week thanks to the absence of D’andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown. I’m not necessarily recommending you trade him, but his value may never be higher than it is right now. You can continue to start him and hope he stays hot, or you can move him now and probably get a massive haul. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
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AuthorTim Brosnan, Fantasy Sports Analyst/Freelance Journalist About: Tim Brosnan is a college-educated sports journalist from the New Haven, Connecticut area. Featured on: https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/09/8-waiver-wire-stashes-fantasy-football/ https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/11/14-players-to-buy-low-sell-high-fantasy-football-november-2021/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nfl_article&utm_content=14-players-to-buy-low-sell-high-fantasy-football-november-2021 The Playbook by CommishFFP thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Brosnan earned his Bachelor's Degree from Castleton University where he majored in Media & Communication, with a focus in Journalism. During his tenure as the sports editor of the Castleton Spartan newspaper, Brosnan created the segment 'Tim's Fantasy Tips'. It began as a simple weekly start/sit column, but since then, the idea has grown into so much more. Brosnan has taken his experience/passion for pro football/fantasy sports and combined it with his journalistic know-how in order to bring you a completely original, well-informed, multi-layered fantasy football advice experience. We hope you enjoy. Archives
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