What We Learned: Week 16
Check back here every week to listen to Tim: analyze what we saw, discuss who's trending up or down, and jump to some wild conclusions.
Kyle Pitts is Who We Thought He Was
Turns out Kyle Pitts is who we thought he was: a generational TE talent. Or at least, that’s what most of us thought he was. Those of us who watched the tape, or paid any attention to his measurables anyway. Pitts naysayers were quick to bang the drum and take a victory lap after a sluggish start, but it didn’t take him very long to not only justify his ADP, but set an historic pace. In just two weeks, Pitts has gone from fantasy TE14 and a “bust” to TE4 on a PPG basis and potentially the best rookie TE of all-time.
It’s too early to call just yet, but thanks to consecutive performances of 9-119-1 and 7-163, he now has the most yards by a rookie TE through six games in NFL history. He is also the youngest TE in history with at least 150 yards in a game. Needless to say, he’s on pace for several rookie TE records, and a stellar career. Not for nothing, but he may have also passed Calvin Ridley as the primary pass-catcher on the Falcons offense. In the words of Brett Kollman, “Pitts is on pace for nearly 1,200 yards this season and the Falcons didn’t figure out how to use him until like two weeks ago. Dude is different.”
If you read my blog, you’d know I said something similar while telling you to target Pitts in 2021 drafts. Is this relevant? No. Does it give me an excuse to toot my own horn? Yes, yes it does. If you drafted Pitts, congrats. You now have an excuse to toot your own horn as well.
What's Going On With Calvin Ridley?
Speaking of Ridley… There is something very bizarre going on. Despite averaging over 10 targets per game and playing on an average of 86.4 percent of snaps this season, he has yet to top 80 yards or 19.5 (PPR) points in any game. Why? There’s no way he isn’t talented enough. I simply refuse to believe that. So why is he WR28 on a PPG basis? It’s not as if Matt Ryan isn’t playing well, or his surrounding talent isn’t taking attention away from him (see above section). So how is he averaging less PPG than Emmanuel Sanders or Sterling Shepard? How does he have less 20+ point games than Zach Pascal? It’s not as if he hasn’t had any positive matchups. The man’s most recent matchups were against Washington, the Giants and Miami for cryin’ out loud. So what the heck is going on? And where do we go from here? Do we sell? Hold? Buy-low?
All I have is questions. Unfortunately, I don’t have many answers. All I know is you can’t sell at anything close to what he’s worth if whoever you’re trying to trade with has been paying attention. I guess you can buy-low, if the price is right. But with Kyle Pitts emerging, and some of his best matchups already behind him, I’m not entirely convinced you want to. My brain says he’s seeing too many looks and is too talented to continue to underperform, but my heart has already been broken by him. My official advice is to hold/buy-low and hope for the best, because at this point hope is all we can do.
Dropping Allen Robinson is NOT Out of The Question
Through seven weeks, Allen Robinson has quite possibly been the biggest bust in all of fantasy football. He has single-digit PPR points in 6/7 games this season. He has no more than 10.4 points or 63 yards in any game. He’s finished with less than 40 yards in 5/7 and has just one game with more than four catches. Everything I’ve seen from the Bears QB situation tells me it isn’t going to get much better. Fields looks brutal, currently sporting a 2:6 TD-INT ratio. Andy Dalton did target Robinson 11 times in week one during his only full game of the season, but it only amounted to 35 yards. To be honest, even with how bad Fields has been, I’m not sure Dalton starts another game for the Bears this season.
It sounds crazy to dump Robinson, a player who was widely regarded as a second-round pick this season, but through seven games it has been nothing but pain. You can’t trust him enough to start him, and you won’t get anything but a bag of chips in a trade. My advice is to dump him (unless you’re in a super deep league) and let him become someone else’s problem. If you’ve been hanging on and hoping for the best so far, you’ve done nothing but burn a roster spot. Why put up with it any longer? Do yourself a favor: cut him and avoid a weekly headache.
OR… Consider the fact I’m the one telling you to drop him, which means there’s about a 75 percent chance he returns to form and has several career games in a row, just because I jinxed him.
Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/
Tim Brosnan, Fantasy Sports Analyst/Freelance Journalist
Tim Brosnan is a college-educated sports journalist from the New Haven, Connecticut area.
The Playbook by CommishFFP
Brosnan earned his Bachelor's Degree from Castleton University where he majored in Media & Communication, with a focus in Journalism.
During his tenure as the sports editor of the Castleton Spartan newspaper, Brosnan created the segment 'Tim's Fantasy Tips'. It began as a simple weekly start/sit column, but since then, the idea has grown into so much more.
Brosnan has taken his experience/passion for pro football/fantasy sports and combined it with his journalistic know-how in order to bring you a completely original, well-informed, multi-layered fantasy football advice experience.
We hope you enjoy.