What We Learned: Week 16
Check back here every week to listen to Tim: analyze what we saw, discuss who's trending up or down, and jump to some wild conclusions.
Joe Mixon flying under the radar
In a week where it felt like just about every RB1 finished with 20+ points (Cook, Swift, CMC, Conner, Chubb, etc.) guys like Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler stood out above the rest. But there’s one name that has been flying under the radar. Joe Mixon has quietly been one of the most reliable RBs in fantasy for the last six weeks. After a 120-yard two-TD performance in week 11, he’s now delivered at least 24.3 (PPR) points, and finished with at least 90 total yards in four of his last five games.
He has seven (that’s right, SEVEN) games in a row with at least one TD. And yet, it seems like nobody is talking about him. It feels like nobody is giving him the credit he deserves. If you ask me, he has officially settled the debate this season. There can no longer be any doubt. Joe Mixon is a bonafide RB1, and a lock as a top-15 overall pick in next years drafts.
Should you worry about Russell Wilson?
Yes. You should. The appeal when drafting Russell Wilson this season, at least for me, stemmed a lot from Matthew Berry’s “100 facts for the 2021 fantasy football season”
Influenced by this, I felt safe selecting Wilson in several drafts this season. Now, this is not me blaming Matthew Berry. After all, the article is called 100 FACTS because at the time that’s what they were. The first five on the list have to do with Russ. Over the past three seasons, only two QBs had 30+ games with multiple TD passes. Patrick Mahomes and Wilson. Wilson was THE ONLY QB with at least 30 TD passes in each of the last two seasons. Before 2021, he had done that in four straight seasons. Only Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton had more rushing yards than Wilson during that span. The last time he didn’t finish as a top-10 fantasy QB, Tim Tebow and Mark Sanchez were starting in the NFL. Last but not least (and this one was my favorite) he had never missed a game in his NFL career. Add that all up, and how could you possibly go wrong with Russ as your QB1?
Well. It figures that the year I’m confident in all this knowledge is the year it all goes out the window. Not only has he missed several games for the first time, he isn’t rushing like he normally does. At this point last season, Wilson had seven games with five or more rush attempts and 20+ rushing yards. So far in 2021 (granted he missed some time) he has just two such games. He had just one game with less than 10 fantasy points last season. He is three for his last three in that category, and has yet to score a TD since week four. So yeah, I’m a little worried about Russ. That being said, I have faith he pulls through. I just don’t know if you can start him in fantasy until he does.
How bout them Eagles?
Don’t look now, but the Eagles defense may be a league-winner. After an 11-point performance (three TO’s, one TD) against the Saints, they’re now averaging 10.5 fantasy PPG over their last four games. And that’s including a -3-point performance against the Chargers in week nine. Remove that game, and they’re averaging 14 fantasy PPG since week seven. They’ve (when I say they I mean Darius Slay) have a TD in three of their last four games. During this span, Philly has racked up five TO’s and seven sacks. But this isn’t why I say the Eagles will be league-winners. You may want to sit down for this next part.
Are you ready? Their remaining opponents: @NYG, NYJ (week 14 BYE) WAS, NYG again, WAS again. They are currently the ninth-highest scoring fantasy D/ST, and are owned in just 12.6 percent of ESPN leagues. Sure, anything can happen. But knowing their opponents and the way they’ve played recently, what do you think is most likely to happen? I know which side of the fence I’m on. It’s time for you to pick one because, once the rest of your league notices their remaining schedule, they could quickly become a hot commodity.
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Tim Brosnan, Fantasy Sports Analyst/Freelance Journalist
Tim Brosnan is a college-educated sports journalist from the New Haven, Connecticut area.
The Playbook by CommishFFP
Brosnan earned his Bachelor's Degree from Castleton University where he majored in Media & Communication, with a focus in Journalism.
During his tenure as the sports editor of the Castleton Spartan newspaper, Brosnan created the segment 'Tim's Fantasy Tips'. It began as a simple weekly start/sit column, but since then, the idea has grown into so much more.
Brosnan has taken his experience/passion for pro football/fantasy sports and combined it with his journalistic know-how in order to bring you a completely original, well-informed, multi-layered fantasy football advice experience.
We hope you enjoy.