What We Learned: Week 16
Check back here every week to listen to Tim: analyze what we saw, discuss who's trending up or down, and jump to some wild conclusions.
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Waiver Gem TEs Continue to Shine If you’re like me, you either draft a TE very early, or very late. And I mean very late. I started Cameron Brate this week, if that helps put it into perspective. I’ll take any production I can get until I discover a reliable waiver-wire TE. A diamond in the rough, if you will. There’s one every year. Last year it was Logan Thomas. The year before it was Darren Waller, even Tyler Higbee for a late-season stretch. Unfortunately for me, I whiffed on this years two TE gems, but it may not be too late for you. If you’re a jerk like me (or owned George Kittle/Logan Thomas) look no further than Dawson Knox and Dalton Schultz. Knox now has a TD in four straight games. Dalton Schultz has six or more receptions in three straight games. They have more than proved their fantasy worth for the past month. Both were likely scooped up by last week, but they may still be out there. Knox and Schultz are still available in roughly 30 percent of leagues. Don’t be like me and wait to see it for “one more week” before you trust them. Grab them and start them now. They’ve earned it. If you secure one of them, be grateful for what you have, because some people don’t have tight ends. Justin Jefferson is the ALPHA I had been in denial for a while. Never about the fact that Jefferson was more physically gifted than Thielen, because that much is obvious. I was in denial that he was the alpha WR1 in this offense. Thielen has been productive for so long it almost seemed insulting to suggest a player that has been there for one year had snagged his crown. But it can no longer be written off. Over the last three weeks, Jefferson has averaged 7.3 receptions, 108.6 rec yards, and 22.2 fantasy points per game. While Thielen has seen his targets, receptions, rec yards, AND fantasy points decline in each game during this span. To be fair, Thielen had a 20+ yard reception called back in each of the past two games. He is still an incredibly talented WR that is one of the best bets in the league for a TD every week. This is not intended to be a diss on him at all. But make no mistake, Jefferson eats first. Time to Panic on AJB? In three full games this season, Brown has averaged 9.6 fantasy PPG. Some players averaging more: Zach Pascal, Quintez Cephus, KJ Osborn, Van Jefferson... You didn’t draft any of those guys nearly as high as AJ Brown (at least I hope you didn’t). Heck, you probably didn’t draft them at all. So why are they outproducing your WR1? I wish I could tell you, because I’d like to know myself. AJB has yet to register more than 50 yards in any game, and you can’t even blame the matchups. Arizona, Seattle, and Jacksonville (his opponents during his three full games) all have some of the worst graded CB groups in the league according to ProFootballFocus. Weeks 1-2 you could argue Julio Jones was eating into his targets (which were low to begin with on a run-first offense) but in week 3 with Julio inactive, he still came up short. Argh. I’m not ready to give up on a player as talented as AJ Brown, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t panicked. Enough so that benching him this week against the number one ranked Buffalo Bills defense is a strong possibility.  Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
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Cordarelle Patterson, very much a thing Despite playing no more than 40 percent of snaps in any game this season, it seems apparent that Cordarelle Patterson is the Falcons most effective offensive weapon thus far. I say offensive weapon because I’m not really sure what to call him. He can be played at both WR and RB in most leagues, he gets carries (at least six attempts in all four games so far, one rushing TD) but he also lines up as a WR and runs routes (has at least six targets and is averaging 74 rec. yards over last three games, four rec. TDs). Not to mention, he has already entered the ‘greatest returner of all time’ discussion. So what else can you call him but a damn weapon? Sure, Mike Davis has been solid, leading the backfield in snaps and carries, scoring no less than 10.2 points in any game this season, but it’s clear Patterson is the “RB/guy getting touches out of the backfield” to own in Atlanta. He has now outscored Davis three weeks in a row. He is simply too dynamic to ignore with his current volume/usage. After exploding for 34.6 points and three TDs in week four, he is averaging 24.9 PPG over his last three games, and is a must-add to all rosters. Sam Darnold...fantasy monster? Leaving the Jets was the best thing that could have ever happened to Sam Darnold. Who could have guessed that, right? Through four games, the former USC Trojan has 10 total TDs, (five rushing, most in the league) and just three turnovers. As of Sunday, he now has three consecutive games with 300+ passing yards. To put that into perspective, in his entire Jets career (38 games) Darnold threw for 300+ yards just four times. Right now, he’s 3/4 in that category to begin his Panthers career. He’s averaging 297.1 passing yards, and 23.7 fantasy points per game, with no less than 18.9 points in any game this season! With a receiving core as loaded as his, and Adam Gase no longer holding him back, it’s no wonder the talented young QB is having success. Darnold is quickly working his way into the fantasy QB1 discussion. Currently, he is QB5 just behind Tom Brady, and is *checks notes* available in over 80 percent of ESPN leagues… You know what to do people. Najee Harris is a bonafide RB1 If you drafted Harris as an RB1, looks like you got what you bargained for. While it’s true his efficiency is leaving much to be desired (has yet to rush for over 65 yards, could probably be blamed on his O-line). Still, he is averaging 22.8 fantasy points per game over the last three weeks. So, how’s he getting it done you ask? The answer: elite volume. The rookie workhorse is averaging 21.3 touches per game during the aforementioned span. The craziest part about his last three games? Harris has 25 receptions. Not only is that more than anyone on the Steelers weeks 2-4, it’s more than anyone in the league… DJ Moore is second with 24. No other Steelers RB is even coming close to Harris in snaps or touches this season, so I don’t see any reason why it shouldn’t continue. Just like Chancellor Palpatine said to a young Anakin Skywalker, “Najee, we will watch your career with great interest.” Start: Jameis Winston vs Washington Football Team Since his 5-TD performance in week one, Winston has cooled off significantly, but I think he heats back up this week. Coming off a season-high 226 yards passing, expect his numbers to continue their upward trend against a WFT secondary that is quickly making a case as worst in the league. Washington has allowed an average of 307 pass YPG, a TD-to-INT ratio of 10:1, and a league-high 27.8 fantasy PPG to opposing QBs. Most recently they were torched by Matt Ryan for 300 total yards, four TDs and 29.02 fantasy points. This is as good a week as any for Jameis to rack up points. Let’s just hope Taysom Hill doesn’t steal all the TDs again. - Tim Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Derrick Henry's receiving usage trending up In week three, Derrick Henry finished with three catches for 31 yards. This may not seem like a big deal until you put it into perspective. Never (and I mean never) in his five-year NFL career has Derrick Henry registered three consecutive games with at least three catches. Never in his career had he registered three such games in a single season! Through three games in 2021, that is no longer the case. Henry’s previous single-season career-high for receptions is just 19. His single-season career-high for receiving yards is just 206. He is currently on pace to break both of those totals by week six. He’s more than halfway there already. So, you’re telling me a 2,000-yard rusher, possibly the most dominant force in the league, is now going to be involved as a pass-catcher as well? As if he wasn’t lethal enough… Well folks, it may be too early to call it just yet, but there’s a chance we’re looking at the RB1 overall. Mike Williams is a MUST-START WR1 If you go back far enough on my twitter, you’ll see I’ve been a huge Mike Williams fan since he was at Clemson. I was willing to go as far as calling him a “generational 50/50 ball talent”. I wouldn’t throw that term around lightly. His sophomore year in the NFL, he finished with 10 TDs but just 664 yards on only 43 catches. The next season he finished with 1,000+ yards on 49 catches but was rocked by TD regression, only scoring twice. So, it’s been established he has the potential for double-digit TDs, and the potential to be a thousand-yard receiver. The talent has been there, it never left. It has always been a question of consistency. Well, this year he’s looking ready to finally put it all together. In the past two seasons, he was targeted 10+ times just thrice. We are three weeks into 2021 and he already has two such games, with no less than 9 targets in any game. Entering week four, Williams has 31 targets, 22 receptions, four TDs, is averaging 98.3 yards and 25.8 PPG. He is currently on pace to double his career-high in receptions and targets. If he is guaranteed the volume (which, so far, it seems he is) I don’t know if there’s any receiver I’m more willing to bet on than Mike Will. If this production continues, he is without a doubt THE steal of the 2021 fantasy season. Mattison is the Best Insurance Policy in Fantasy Dalvin Cook is excellent when he’s on the field. The only problem is: he’s not always on the field. It's fair to say of the consensus RB1s in fantasy, Dalvin Cook is the most injury-prone. Since entering the league in 2017, not once has he played more than 14 games in a season. In week three, Alexander Mattison showed (once again) why he is the most valuable insurance policy/rb4 stash you can ask for. Against the Seahawks, he received a ridiculous 34 touches, translating that into 23.1 fantasy points without even scoring a TD. Similar to Kareem Hunt, this is a guy talented enough to start on another team, and he’s serving as a stud RBs backup. Unfortunately he doesn’t have the same role as Hunt, which provides him with weekly flex value. BUT he is arguably just as valuable. With Mattison, you’re basically guaranteed RB1 production for a few games every year. He has some standalone value on your bench and provides leverage in trade negotiations, even if you don’t have Cook, and especially if you’re trading to the person who does. As of now, he is available in just over 35% of ESPN leagues. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ So About Last Week... Remember when I said it was clear Gibson is the workhorse in this offense? Yeah.. Looks like I may have jumped the gun on that one. In week two, it was McKissic who led the backfield in receptions, targets, and fantasy points. The most concerning thing to see for Gibson owners was McKissic getting the only goal line carry of the game, argh, and also played every snap during WFT’s 2 minute drill at the end of the game. Of the two, Gibson is clearly the more efficient runner between the tackles and is going to receive most of the carries every week, but McKissic is simply too good of a player not to have a role on this offense. It is no fluke he was the most targeted RB in 2020. Part of me wants to believe this was just a way of managing Gibson's workload on a short week, after all he did have 20 carries just four days prior. McKissic was fresh by comparison. The thing about this backfield rotation is: it works. It’s good for the team so, if it ain’t broke, I’m all of a sudden not so sure it needs fixing, so to speak. Looks like we’re gonna have to pump the breaks on Gibson’s workhorse season for now, at least until his receiving usage becomes more of a focal point. Don't Panic on Herbert An average of 14 PPG is not what fantasy owners were expecting when they drafted Herbert as their QB1. His fantasy totals, however, have been misleading thus far. Herbert and the Chargers have been on the receiving end of a few unfortunate penalties/bad calls in weeks one and two. We all saw that “fumble” in week one. I mean, come on. That’s a -2 Herbert did not deserve. He had two passing TDs called back in week two because of penalties. One of those revoked TDs led to an INT soon after. That is a 6-point swing in the wrong direction. But it is not an accurate reflection of how good Herbert has played. At one point on Sunday, he had 16 consecutive completions. He has now thrown for 330+ yards and a TD in both games. He’s playing good football. He just happens to have had some bad luck to begin the season. I think he is going to be fine moving forward. Now would be a great time to buy low if the Herbert owner in your league is panicked. If you are the Herbert owner in your league, fear not friend. Better days are ahead. Marvin Jones: WR to Own in Jacksonville Last week DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, and Marvin Jones all seemed to get an equal piece of the pie. But in week two it was Marvin Jones who seemed to separate from the rest. He looked every bit the part of a security blanket who will be leaned on heavily by his rookie QB, finishing with six catches for 55 yards and a TD on 11 targets. In week two, during a game the Jags struggled to move the ball, Jones accounted for roughly 47 percent of Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards. Through two games he has enjoyed a 24 percent target share, A TD in each game, and an average of 18.1 PPG. He’s played 91 percent of snaps so far, more than Chark and Shenault in both games. Now, I’m not saying he’s going to be a sure-fire weekly play, but similar to Brandin Cooks, he is the top receiving weapon on a team with a bad defense that will likely be throwing the ball a lot this season. He could quickly enter the WR3 conversation. After all, we have seen the veteran WR deliver some solid fantasy campaigns in the past. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Jameis Revival Incoming? I can’t lie, that Lasik eye surgery worked wonders. That makes two eye tests Jameis passed as of Sunday. He looked polished with an impressive five TD passes and no turnovers. His weapons, aside from Kamara, are a bit suspect so I don’t want to get too carried away here. But don’t forget, he’s just two years removed from finishing as the QB4 in fantasy. He is QB3 as of now. Don’t be surprised if Juwan Johnson becomes a thing as well. There is precedent of converted receivers making for good TEs. There is also precedent of Jameis making use of his TEs in the red zone, just saying. Antonio Gibson Workhorse Season Based on the final fantasy point total, you would think it was a quiet day for Gibson, but what I saw was encouraging. In week one, he picked up 108 total yards on 23 touches (3 rec on 5 targets). McKissic eating into his workload and his low snap percentage have always been the main concerns for Gibson throughout the offseason, but McKissic picked up eight yards on just one touch and was only targeted once. No other Washington RB touched the ball more than twice on Sunday. Gibson played 70% of snaps in week one, and continued to be fed even after fumbling the football. He is clearly trusted by the coaching staff and is, in my eyes, filling the workhorse role. Moving forward, I expect to see more of the same (hopefully with some more TDs sprinkled in). Promising Lions Backfield Before kickoff on Sunday it was announced Jamaal Williams would start and “carry the load” for the Lions. Well, even with the Lions actively trying to limit D’Andre Swift’s workload, he couldn’t be contained. He still managed to lead the backfield in carries, and pick up eight receptions on 11 targets for 65 yards and a TD. Jamaal Williams was also very productive, taking his 17 touches (8 receptions on 9 targets) for 110 total yards and a TD. And this was supposed to be a tough matchup. I can see a scenario where Swift and Williams are both heavily involved and provide standalone value each week. I mean, Anthony Lynn is their OC so I guess we already saw that coming. Any concerns about them capping each others ceilings should be eased. Swift projects as a mid to high-end RB2 while Jamaal Williams looks like he’ll be one of the best RB3/flex options you could ask for.  Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe today to have our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ It’s the eighth round of a 12-team (PPR) draft. You’re on the clock. Who would you rather have? Former undisputed fantasy WR1, and recent favorite target of Tom Brady, Antonio Brown… Or unproven Jets rookie RB (likely to split touches with Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson) Michael Carter? It seems like an easy decision. But often times, it’s not that simple. Let’s say, for the sake of this exercise, you’ve already drafted a QB, TE, two RBs and three WRs. Or maybe one anchor RB, and four WRs.. You wanted to secure that high-upside QB & TE, and you did. BUT.. you passed on starting RBs like Myles Gaskin, Mike Davis and Gus Edwards to do so. Now, it’s round 8 and you need an RB2 or RB3. Unfortunately there are no RBs left that aren’t second-string or stuck in a committee. Well crap. How did we get here? This seems like a problem many people have been running into when drafting their teams this season, especially in 12-team leagues. With season ending injuries to players like Travis Etienne, JK Dobbins, and Cam Akers, the mid-round, high-upside RB pool has thinned out more than usual. Most times, you're going to end up with a sketchy RB3 you don't have much trust in. So, how do we solve this problem? My answer: go RB-heavy early on. Take the two players listed above for example. You’ve made it to round eight in a 12-team league. Trust me when I say, you’d MUCH rather be looking for a WR at this point than an RB. RBs available in 8th round range (84-96 overall): Michael Carter, Sony Michel, AJ Dillon, Zach Moss, James Conner All are players that are either a second option on their team, or are stuck in a timeshare/committee and are FAR from a safe bet. On the other hand.. Some WRs available in same range: Antonio Brown, Jarvis Landry, Corey Davis, Will Fuller, Marquez Callaway All of these players are not only likely to score more consistent weekly points than the RBs listed above, they all offer LEAGUE WINNING UPSIDE !!! But if you wont take it from me, how about from Matthew Berry? In the TMR’s ‘7 habits of highly effective drafters’ article, he lists understanding position depth as a key to being an effective drafter. He details the difference in fantasy points between a top-20 RB and a top-20 WR, and how over the last decade numbers have proven you’re MUCH more likely to find a WR1 in the WR2 pool than vice versa with RBs. I would highly recommend checking it out as he puts it much better than I could. I’ll post a link to it below. In essence, Berry tells that the average drop-off in points among RB2s and WR2s is, on average, a nearly a 20 percent difference. Long story short: WR is always deep, QB is usually pretty deep, RB hardly ever is, and is the last position you want to wait on. The solution, in my opinion, is to grab as many top-30 RB's as you can before it is too late. Trust me when I say, you can wait on WRs. There are plenty of trustworthy options with a clear path to fantasy-friendly usage in rounds 6-10. The same can't be said of RB's. Now, am I recommending you pass on Tyreek Hill in the second round to draft D'Andre Swift? Absolutely not. I'm not suggesting you grab someone you know is going to score less points than the player you want. I'm simply suggesting you bolster depth at a position where depth is hard to come by. The fact is, fantasy WRs literally grow on trees. It happens every year. Take Travis Fulgham last season for example. Did he get drafted on fantasy teams last season? No he did not. Did he have a stretch of games where he basically put up low-end WR1, high-end WR2 numbers? He absolutely did. How about QB/TE? If you want to grab your TE/QB early, my advice is to pick one, and punt the other. As for TE, If you can secure Kelce, Waller, Kittle, Mark Andrews, Kyle Pitts, TJ Hockenson I certainly wouldn't blame you for taking that route. But if you miss on those guys, you don't have to feel like it's time to panic and reach. There are plenty of intriguing, albeit less safe, options going later like, for example, Logan Thomas (ADP: 96th overall, finished last season as TE3 in total points, undrafted ADP in 2020). RBs available in that range listed above. As for QB, the minimum requirement for a good fantasy QB is a lot more lenient than any other position. Sure, it is nice to have a solid bet for elite production like Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, etc. But you don't always have to spend one of your top-five/six picks to get that. Ryan Tannehill was/is a fine late-round option that scores consistent points and offers elite upside, and can normally be drafted AFTER you have 4WRs/4RBs and a TE. Last season, Josh Allen's ADP was QB10, Aaron Rodgers was QB13! How outrageous does that sound knowing how they performed? My point is, it's fine to grab an elite option at either QB or TE early on, but if you grab both, your depth (at least for one position) will often suffer as a result. Hopefully the position it doesn't suffer is your RB slot, because to overcome that, it'll be an uphill battle. https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/31951284/fantasy-football-draft-day-manifesto-7-habits-highly-effective-drafters  Photo courtesy of @TimsFantasyTips on Instagram
Antonio Brown and Michael Carter are going in the same range in fantasy football drafts this season. One clearly has more upside, so why is the decision so close? Read the enclosed article to find out! Disclaimer: This list is not intended to make you reach on players, or avoid them altogether. It is simply a reflection of their current value and whether or not I believe they have an appropriate price tag. Players to target are either appropriately priced, or steals at their average draft position (ADP). Players to avoid are those I designate as overvalued or being drafted too early. A PPR format is assumed. Now that we've gotten that riveting introduction out of the way, let's get down to business. Shall we? Target: 1. Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers Let's just start with the resume:
In other words, he comes with the pedigree of a workhorse back. As we all know, the Steelers are no stranger to riding a workhorse. I caved and stole this stat from Matthew Berry to really drive this point home, but from 2013-2018 the Steelers lead back averaged 20 touches per game. Add in Harris, a player who totaled two or more rushing scores in nine of 13 games last season and well, I'll take my chances with those 20 touches every week. With that kind of volume, he is talented enough to produce RB1 numbers. The main argument against Harris seems to be the condition of his o-line (spoiler alert, not good). Personally, I’d be more worried about that if I didn’t see him as a true three-down back. But if you won’t take it from me, take it from Pittsburgh GM Kevin Colbert. In July, Colbert stated he would be “disappointed” if Harris doesn’t turn out to be a three-down back. He went on to say how they drafted him because they thought he could be a three-down back at the NFL level. That is the expectation in Pittsburgh. It is now my expectation as well. He is currently sitting at RB10 in my (PPR) rankings but even then, I may be too low. I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish top-seven. His ADP has him as a second-round pick at the moment, and I'm here to tell you that is just right. Depending on how you feel about Ekeler/Aaron Jones, I could even see him as a late first rounder. 2. Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team Stop me if you’ve heard this one: I love Terry McLaurin. (I'm president of the fan club, in fact) I loved him playing with dollar store QBs, and I love him even more now that he'll be playing with the best QB he's ever had. At least, as far as his fantasy value is concerned. To put things into perspective, the last three seasons Fitzpatrick has started at least 12 games, he's been responsible for a top-15 fantasy WR (PPR scoring). Another stolen stat from Matthew Berry, I'm killing it, I know. Jokes aside, here's the list of said beneficiaries:
If you combine all those players stats, their season averages under Fitzmagic would be: 86.7 receptions, 1,313 yards, 10.7 TDs, off 8.9 targets per game. This is a match made in heaven for McLaurin, a player who averaged 19.3 PPG when targeted eight or more times last season. Fitzpatrick has reached a point in his career where he's not afraid to let it rip, force throws in to coverage and give his receivers a chance. Let's be honest, what does he have to lose? One thing is for sure, when targeting Terry McScorin' that behavior is going to be rewarded. Here are just a few accolades McLaurin has piled up since entering the league:
Simply put, McLaurin is a true WR1. His ceiling is very high this season, and I don't want to miss the boom. (I've drafted three teams so far and he is on every one of them. So, my money is literally where my mouth is on this one.) I have Terry as my WR8 at the moment, which means I'm more than comfortable with him as my WR1. He is an easy pick for me in the back half of the second round. 3. Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons This is kind of a low hanging fruit, if you ask me. Yet, others are not so convinced. Here's my reasoning: Julio Jones is gone. The same player who hasn't seen less than 148 targets or 83 receptions in each of the last three seasons he played at least 14 games for the Falcons. (Hint: that work has to go somewhere) Matt Ryan has proved capable of supporting multiple fantasy-relevant pass catchers in the past. Ex: Julio Jones, Roddy White, Calvin Ridley, Austin Hooper, Mohammed Sanu... All of which have had success with one or the other present at the same time. It wasn't too long ago that Austin Hooper finished back-to-back seasons as TE6 (TE3 in PPG in 2019) as Atlanta's TE. I'm not saying Pitts is a better player than Hooper (I'm also not saying the opposite), but on paper, he puts him to shame as an athlete. "But rookie tight ends never have success right away," you say. I’m not saying Pitts has 1,000 yards right out of the gate, but in order to finish as a top-tier fantasy TE he doesn't need to. Mind you, Calvin Ridley had 800 yards and 10 TD's his rookie year. My point being: if you can play, Matty Ice is going to get you the ball. Granted, Pitts is not a receiver, but that should only work in his favor. He’s simply too fast/athletic to be covered by a linebacker and too large to be covered by a DB in the red zone. His nearly seven foot wingspan puts him in a class of his own. (83 3/8” is the longest of any wide receiver or tight end in the last 20 years). Not to mention a 6’6 frame and a 41-inch vertical jump (higher than Julio Jones) to utilize every bit of that reach. Forget his basketball-type athleticism and 4.44 speed... Simply put, there are going to be some balls that he, and only he, can catch. The man is going to be a matchup nightmare and that’s just inevitable. If he’s still there in the sixth-round, don't hesitate to hit that big green DRAFT button. 4. Mike Davis, RB, Atlanta Falcons Two falcons in a row? I must be expecting them to be good this year, right? Sorry Falcons fans, but no. I am not. HOWEVER... I do think there will be plenty of fantasy value for an offense that should be playing a lot of catch up. There is no starting RB being slept on as heavily as Mike Davis is this year. He currently has an ADP of 63rd overall (via FantasyPros). You can look all you want, but you wont find another bell-cow RB, basically guaranteed a full workload like Davis, in that range (sixth round). We're talking about a player that caught five or more passes in SEVEN of his 12 games as a starter in Carolina last season (Alvin Kamara is the only other RB that had more in 2020) The same player whose FLOOR was 8.1 PPR points in 2020. The same player who scored a TD in every game he received at least 20 touches. He also happened to average 20.5 PPG in said games. Now he joins Atlanta, filling the same role that saw Todd Gurley rush for nine TD's in his first nine games last season, and score less than 9.7 PPR points just once in that span. Do me a favor... Just for this exercise, without Googling it, name Atlanta's backup RB. Kudos to you if you can, but I think it's safe to say most of us can't. Even if you could, so what? None are a threat to steal the job as far as I'm concerned. New Falcons HC Arthur Smith was the Titans OC last season. If you didn't know, they finished 2020 with the third-highest run percentage in the league. I'm not saying Mike Davis is even close to the RB Derrick Henry is, but Smith certainly has some tendencies when it comes to play-calling. Some more elite RB comparisons? I thought you'd never ask. Only Nick Chubb forced more missed tackles per carry than Davis. No RB forced more missed tackles than Davis in the receiving game. I can do this all day. The list of reasons why Mike Davis should be a lock for fantasy production continues. The only part I'm having trouble with is finding concrete reasons why he wouldn't. If anyone can make a compelling argument as to why he's currently a sixth round pick, I'd love to hear it. Until then, I'll be targeting him heavily thank you very much. Now, do I think he holds this job all season/receives 20+ touches every single game? Not necessarily. But at his current price, you won't find any RB with the opportunity he will begin the season with. High floor + high ceiling + opportunity + current ADP = (and I don't use this term lightly) bust-proof. 5. Sam Darnold, QB, Carolina Panthers For this next exercise, choose your receiving core: - Christian McCaffery, Robby Anderson, DJ Moore, AND first-round WR Terrance Marshall OR - Jamison Crowder Which one do you think gives you the best chance of success? Of course, it's not that simple. But then again, maybe it is. Darnold goes from having nothing to work with in New York, an actual dumpster-fire of a coaching situation, to an up-and-coming Carolina offense with a, dare I say, elite receiving core. Arguably the best in the league... Anderson, Moore and McCaffery have all finished with 1,000+ receiving yards within the last two seasons. Darnold is going to be like a kid in a candy shop. It's easy to point to his career numbers without looking beneath the surface and write him off as a bust. But keep in mind, he has just 38 career starts under his belt. That's less than three seasons worth of games. He's 24 YEARS OLD for crying out loud! In my opinion, Darnold hasn't even scratched the surface of what he's capable of yet. As of now, he's free. His FantasyPros ADP is 279th overall. In layman's terms: undrafted. You could take him with your last pick in the draft. Hell, you could just grab him off the waiver wire after the draft. And why not? FantasyPros strength of schedule metric gives the Panthers the 11th easiest schedule among QB's this season. Last season, Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater was QB10 in fantasy weeks 1-10 with the aforementioned receiving core (minus McCaffery... RIP my fantasy team). Teddy Two Gloves... A player who is now on his fifth NFL team, and was once Darnold's backup. And if Bridgewater can do it... I'm not exactly suggesting you take Darnold as your QB1 in most redraft leagues, but I am planting my flag here saying I think he'll have a good year, better than most expect. He's a fine QB2 target especially in superflex leagues. He is essentially risk-free at his current price. As of now, I can't justify putting him any higher than QB20 in my rankings, but I have a feeling he will certainly make a case to rise up the ranks in 2021. LATE ROUND STEALS: Myles Gaskin (MIA), Tyler Boyd (CIN), Jerry Jeudy (DEN), Corey Davis (NYJ), Gerald Everett (SEA), Tua Tagovailoa (MIA), Marquez Callaway (NO) Avoid: 1. Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders This is tough because I like Jacobs as a player. I had a few shares of him last season and for the most part he was good to me. So it is with a heavy heart that I must make him the face of the AVOID section. Unfortunately for Jacobs's fantasy prospects, the Raiders signed Kenyan Drake in the offseason. Say what you will about Drake (and I’ve definitely said some bad things about him in the past… he was on this list last year) but he’s a decent goal-line back. Last season, Drake scored nine TD's on his 21 carries inside the five (42 percent) Among players with at least 15 carries inside the five, only Dalvin Cook, Derrick Henry and Cam Newton were better. I’m not saying Jacobs can’t rush in the red zone, but there’s a reason they brought Drake in. Part of that reason is Jacobs inefficiency on the goal-line. Last season, he scored on just five of his 18 carries inside the five yard-line (27 percent). Enter Kenyan Drake, a player with no such problem. They pay him starting RB money ($11mil guaranteed). They use him a lot. He steals Josh Jacobs TDs and therefore fantasy points, decreasing Jacobs fantasy value. It's simple math. Jacobs has shown he is a good RB, but the truth is he needs the volume if he's going to produce in fantasy. In 2020, as the unquestioned lead-back, he had less than 20 touches in 10 of 15 games. He scored over 20 PPR Points just four times. Three of those games? You guessed it. He needed 20+ touches to get there. I can't imagine his touches go up with Drake around. Especially in the redzone (where Jacobs scored nine of his 12 TDs in 2020). After finishing with an inneficient 3.9 YPC and now undoubtedly facing more competition for reps than he was all of last year, I don't exactly trust Jacobs as anything more than a flex. His current third-round ADP (27th overall via FantasyPros) is far too rich for me. I wouldn't even think about drafting him until the fifth round. Even then, I might pass. 2. Kenny Golladay, WR, New York Giants Golladay makes his second annual appearance on the pre-season players to avoid list. Congrats Kenny. Granted, last year I may have only been right because of his injury, but hey, a win is a win. Golladay goes from being the unquestioned WR1 in Detroit (22.1 percent target share), to WR1-A in a questionable Giants offense with significantly more mouths to feed. In New York, he'll have to compete for touches with former-stud Evan Engram, target-hog Sterling Shepard, the very underrated Darius Slayton, off-season addition Kyle Rudolph, new first-round receiver Kadarius Toney... Oh, and Saquon Barkley who happens to enjoy catching the ball as well. Competing for high-quality touches from Matthew Stafford, basically unimpeded, is one thing. Being forced to play with Daniel "Dimes" Jones and the over-crowded Giants offense is something else entirely. Last season, Stafford was ninth in fantasy points per attempt and 11th in TD rate. Jones was bottom-six in both categories. It's safe to say that Golladay's quality of looks will decrease by a significant margin. We've already addressed volume is a concern. "But Golladay has made due with low volume in the past!" you scream. Yes, his claim to fame has traditionally been his prowess as a deep threat. He's been able to make up for his lack of volume by racking up points on big plays. The issue with that is, only four teams threw less deep passes than the Giants last season. And it isn't as if they didn't have weapons to do so. Surprisingly. for a team that was trailing a lot last season, the Giants finished 26th in total pass attempts. If all this wasn't bad enough, Golladay's durability is also a huge concern as well. He has played a full 16 games just once in his four-year NFL career. He's already dealing with a leg injury and we haven't even started the season! Currently, Golladay is being ranked somewhere in the WR24-28 range. That means he falls into the WR2 discussion. While I won't argue he has the talent to live up to those expectations, I personally view him as more of a risky WR3. You could take a flier, but a sixth-round pick (ADP: 66th overall via FantasyPros) feels like a steep price to me. 3. D'Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions This is in no way a knock on Swift's talent. I actually think he's capable of being a three-down back. Apparently so do many others, as his ADP of 33rd overall (via FantasyPros) would indicate. But brother (or sister) that's just a price I'm not willing to pay. Currently, he is being drafted/valued as a high-end RB2 with potential to enter the RB1 discussion. I believe he has RB1 potential as well (In fact, between you and me, he is the one player on the 'avoid' list I'm most concerned I'll be wrong about) but, as far as his usage goes, he's more likely to fall short of RB1 numbers than not. I have him ranked as my RB18 for this season, so I'm slightly less bullish on Swift than most. I believe I have a few good reasons. Reason number one: his efficiency (per touch) left a bit to be desired. His 4.57 YPC, 2.41 yards after contact per attempt, his 17 avoided tackles and his .15 avoided tackles per attempt all rank outside the top-20 for qualified RBs... In each category. Reason number two: new Lions OC Anthony Lynn is notorious for maddening committee approaches when it comes to RBs. Just ask anyone who owned Melvin Gordon 2018-2019. Or Austin Ekeler last season... I mean, Joshua Kelley? Really? If he's willing to feed Kelley as often as he did, imagine how he'll use Jamaal Williams. Williams strength as an RB has always been catching the ball, seemingly foreshadowing whats on the horizon for Swift. You guessed it: less third downs. Williams is going to be involved more than any Swift owner is going to appreciate. Make no mistake, he's a capable back that's going to command a healthy share of the backfield touches, and no doubt vulture some of Swift's points. Over the past two seasons, Williams averages 13.5 PPG when he receives 10 or more touches. That kind of productivity only makes his case for staying on the field stronger. Reason number three: he has tough sledding ahead of him. FantasyPros strength of schedule metric pins the Lions with the second-hardest schedule for an RB in 2021. Reason number four: he's hurt! There are concerns Swift may not even play week one! His apparent groin injury has sidelined him for most of training camp, and every preseason game so far. Just the other day, Lions HC Dan Campbell said, "We don’t know if he’s gonna be there. We don’t know, even if he is, how much we’re going to get out of him.” Campbell also went on to state his concern about Swift's conditioning after missing so much time. That doesn't sound very encouraging to me. You'll have to forgive me if I'm not the most optimistic about his usage out of the gate. Keep in mind, I'm not saying avoid Swift altogether. I do love his talent. He'll be playing for a team that's projected to be one of the worst in the league this season, so there will be garbage-time points. But at his current range (third round) I do believe there are safer bets for guaranteed production, and safer bets to actually start the season healthy. I'm personally more comfortable with Swift as a late fourth-round/early fifth-round pick. 4. Robert Tonyan, TE, Green Bay Packers I like Tonyan a lot. I love that he gets to catch passes from Aaron Rodgers. He's fun to root for. I'd let him date my sister if I had one. However, I wouldn't draft him on my fantasy football team this season. At least, not while expecting him to duplicate his TD totals from a year ago that is. Long story short: I don’t think he’s going to meet the lofty expectations many have for him after last season. But, allow me to elaborate. In 2020, the man scored 11 touchdowns on 59 catches (roughly 19 percent). In essence that means he caught a TD about once every five catches. While impressive, that is almost certainly unsustainable. Regression is imminent, to put it lightly. Without the TDs, you may not like what you get. Tonyan had less than 50 yards in 12/16 games last season, and less than 40 in 10/16. In the seven games where he didn’t score, he averaged just 4.8 PPG. Now, there’s no reason why Tonyan can’t make up for that TD regression with an increase in volume. Maybe he gets more catches/yards. Maybe. While it's certainly not out of the question for Rodgers to throw another 45+ TDs, it's also not exactly likely. Without those extra TDs to go Tonyan's way, the PPG averages are going to dry up. And if/when they do, don’t say I didn’t warn you. I’m fine with Tonyan as a late round pick, when there’s eight or nine other TEs off the board. But please, and I mean PLEASE (I’m lookin at you guys who draft their entire starting roster, kicker and all, before drafting bench players) do yourself a favor, and don’t pass on league-winning upside/depth in the sixth round for the sake of securing a TE. (Note: Tonyan's ADP is actually 100th overall via FantasyPros, making him a projected tenth-round pick. I am on board with him in this range. However I've already seen him go much higher in too many mock/actual drafts for me to condone, which is why I felt his inclusion was necessary.) 5. Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars I understand there’s gonna be that one guy in your league who bought all the draft day hype and thinks because he's been touted as the greatest franchise QB prospect since Andrew Luck, Trevor Lawrence is going to be the second-coming of Jesus. And While he may look like Jesus, I’d stay away from him in fantasy year one. Just because we were spoiled with Justin Herbert, half a season of Joe Burrow, and a little bit of Jalen Hurts in 2020, it doesn’t mean rookie QBs are guaranteed to produce. Most often they’re far from it. Lawrence is joining an offense that was bottom-five in total yards per game, and bottom-three in total points scored. T-Law is primed to elevate said offense, but it's unlikely he remedies all their problems entirely. Sure, he has decent weapons around him. DJ Chark is a former thousand-yard receiver, Marvin Jones is always handy. Laviska Shenault can be exciting. If you ask me, the most trustworthy player on that offense is James Robinson. He's a good receiver, but he isn't going to do Lawrence's fantasy value any favors. At least not like Travis Etienne would have. Although he hadn't played a down in the NFL yet, the loss of Etienne shouldn't be understated. Etienne's 588 receiving yards accounted for roughly 19 percent of Lawrence's passing yards last season. The Jags didn't spend a first round pick on a receiving weapon that already had an established connection with their franchise QB for nothing. Etienne's average of 13.5 yards after the catch in 2020 was the most among all college RB's with at least 35 receptions. I'm pretty certain they had a role in mind for him. Now, he is set to miss the 2021 season after requiring surgery for a mid-foot sprain, and that plan has gone out the window. It's a new coaching staff, learning a new scheme. It's more likely than not it'll take a while for Lawrence to iron out the kinks. I expect there to be rookie mistakes and turnovers. That being said, his ESPN ranking of QB14 seems a little aggressive to me. Now, I’m not saying he can’t be a thing this year, in fact I’m sure I’ll like him as a streamer when the matchup is right. All I’m saying is, he's more likely to be a streamer than an actual viable fantasy starter right out of the gate. Personally, I'd avoid spending a draft pick on him. OTHERS GOING TOO EARLY: Darrell Henderson (LAR), Jamaar Chase (CIN), Michael Thomas (NO), Courtland Sutton (DEN), Damien Harris (NE), Michael Carter (NYJ), Matt Ryan (ATL)  Photos courtesy of NFL.com
Steelers rookie Najee Harris and D'andre Swift are both popular RB2 targets this season. But one is being drafted too high, while the other may even be undervalued. Read the enclosed article to find out which is which. First of all, I'd like to thank the guys over at FantasyFootballDome for setting up this awesome league. I'm excited to be a part of it and can't wait to get started. Before the analysis, I just want to disclose this is a SUPERFLEX league, which means you have a flex spot where you're allowed to slot in a second QB. Needless to say this makes QB's much more valuable and therefore drastically alters the draft strategy. Just to be clear, in a standard draft I officially DO NOT recommend taking a QB in the first round. That may be my suggestion, but you are a beautiful king/queen who is allowed to do whatever they want. So, that's on you. Now, let's get started. First round (fourth overall): Josh Allen TimsFantasyTips selects: Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills. Normally I go RB1 in round one no matter what. My logic this time: It’ll be another 16 picks before I pick again. Mahomes is already off the board, so if I don’t grab an elite QB now there will be none left by the time I pick again. And if that’s the case, there should be at least one RB with top-five potential. 2nd round: Austin Ekeler Thankfully, the idea worked and I landed Austin Ekeler, who is the last of the PPR RB1s (in my opinion). He is my bottom cutoff for RB1. After him, it is a handful of RB2s with RB1 potential, but nothing I'd bet the bank on. 3rd round: JK Dobbins It's round three of a 12-team draft, it’s going to be another 16 picks before I go again. I was hoping to land Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, or Stefon Diggs here, but unfortunately they were selected just before. So, now 13 RBs have been drafted, and only three WRs. I could go with D-Hop or Calvin Ridley here, but (applying the same strategy as the first round) I have to go RB otherwise there won’t be any reliable ones left. The way I see it, I should still be able to land a decent WR1 next round. So J.K. Dobbins it is for me. I gotta say, I love him this year. If he is awarded a 3-down role on the best rushing team in football, the dude could be a monster to say the least. 4th round: Terry McLaurin I had imagined landing Keenan Allen here, but I will absolutely take Terry McLaurin as WR1. I love Terry because he can do it all. Not only is he a deep threat with wheels to spare, he's shown he is capable of being an every down possession receiver as well. The only thing he was missing during the first two years of his career was an established QB. I would not be surprised in the slightest if Terry catches 100 passes this season with Fitzpatrick under center. 5th round: Mike Evans I managed to secure Mike Evans as my WR2. Nothing to see here just a man who has finished with 1,000 yards every season he’s been in the league. Only the current number one target of the best QB all the time, coming off a career-high 13 receiving TDs. Fifth round? I’ll take it. 6th round: Julio Jones I had planned on grabbing Myles Gaskin, Kareem Hunt, or Etienne with this pick but all were selected by the time it got back to me. With no RB’s I liked at this price, and Julio somehow still available, I couldn’t hesitate. Hopefully I don’t have to explain why I like Julio Jones. I just so happen to think he's pretty good at football. Derrick Henry being his teammate means opponents will have no choice but to stack the box, which means teams will have no choice but to leave Julio (or AJB) one-on-one. For as long as he's been around, that has never been a good idea. 7th round: Tua Tagovailoa My superflex pick. QB’s were wearing thin, there were only two options left I was excited about. Tua and Ryan Fitzpatrick. I chose to take a chance on Tua because not only is he very underrated as a mobile QB, he also has an absolute STABLE of weapons; maybe the best arsenal in the league. EX: Will Fuller, Devante Parker, Myles Gaskin, Mike Gesicki, first-round pick (and former Alabama teammate) Jaylen Waddle.. If he takes even one step forward this season, I like my chances for some big numbers out of Tuaman. 8th round: Michael Thomas I was aiming for Melvin Gordon and almost had him too, but those meddling kids snagged him the exact pick before mine *sheds tear*. At this point, it’s pick 93. If I can survive to week eight, why not grab Michael Thomas for a playoff push? As my WR4 no less. I really can't go wrong with a former WR1 overall at this price. 9th round: Ronald Jones On the turn around, knew I needed a capable RB3 with RB2 potential before it was too late. Ronald Jones was the closest thing to that I could manage. There's no doubt in my mind Jones is good for a few big games handling the majority of the touches this season. The same could be said for Uncle Lenny, I just think Jones eats first. 10th Round: Will Fuller This far in the draft, WR isn't exactly a position of need for me, but in my opinion Will Fuller is by far the best player still available. I mean, I get why he’s here. He's never finished a full season. He’s on a new team with an unproven QB. He's going to miss week one due to a lingering suspension. But at this point, as my WR 4-5 I’m not really risking anything, for a potential huge return. Let’s not forget, the man puts up numbers. Last season, he was averaging 17.09 PPG, and was on a six-game TD streak at one point. That is WR1 behavior ladies and gentlemen. Had he played a full 16 games at that pace, he would have finished last season as WR6, just above DK Metcalf. 11th round: Nyheim Hines I feel like the fact Hines finished as RB15 in PPR last season went over a lot of peoples heads. I know Marlon Mack is back, and it’s supposed to be the Jonathan Taylor show this season. However, Hines is the most reliable pass catcher in that backfield and that's just a fact. I can't imagine he isn't involved on a handful of screens and check downs each week. Sure, he might be due for a a little regression here. I don't expect he finishes as RB15 again, but you can't say he doesn't have the potential. Grabbing him as my RB4 this late was an easy decision. 12th round: Tyrod Taylor There is obviously a lot of uncertainty surrounding Deshaun Watson. I personally don’t expect him to play this season, certainly not as a Houston Texan. So technically, Tyrod is the Texans starting QB. It’s not the most promising gig but it’s something. Taylor might not jump off the page but he hardly ever turns the ball over and provides a decent rushing floor. This provides me with good QB depth, and if you ever played in a Superflex league you’d know how fast them starting QBs dry up. 13th round: Gerald Everett My philosophy with TE is either I’m one of the first to pick one, or I’m last. In this case I was dead last. FULL DISCLAIMER: Gerald Everett wasn’t really on my radar before this draft begun. Luckily it lasted four days (slow draft, 12 hours per pick) so I had time to do some research. Turns out there’s a few reasons to like Everett.
To be clear, I'm not fully expecting Everett to be a weekly starter for me, and I'm certainly not endorising him as a top-ten pick at his position. If he cracks the top-ten for TEs, great. (It wouldn't take much honestly) If not, no harm done. Every year I tend to try and stack important positions and worry about TE later. It's an effective strategy more often than not. 14th round: 49ers D/ST I don’t know about you, but I personally can’t name one team that was devastated by injuries last season more than the 49ers. Their defense took most of the hit, and it showed in the stat sheets. (16th most total points allowed) Now fully healthy, just one season removed from being a SuperBowl caliber unit and the third-highest scoring fantasy defense, I’ll absolutely take a shot on them. If it doesn’t pay off, what did I lose? A 14th round pick? I think I’ll be okay. 1. Is it time to panic on Tom Brady ? Nobody can change the fact that Tom Brady has more Super Bowl rings than he can fit on one hand. He is, and always will be, the greatest quarterback of all time. But in two games as a Buccaneer, things have not been pretty. It's tempting to sound the panic alarm, heck I've seen some do it already. Before you do, just keep in mind nobody had a full preseason to prepare, and we're only two weeks in. I understand that judging based off this small sample size, it's looking like the guy we all viewed as a top-ten fantasy QB this season, is going to fall short of those expectations. But is it really his fault? In week two, with Chris Godwin out of the lineup, it became apparent that Mike Evans (seven catches, 104 yards, one TD) was the only receiving weapon Brady could count on. TE 'Sit of the Week' Rob Gronkowski (widely drafted as a TE1 in fantasy land) has been an absolute non-factor through two games. So far this season, he’s drawn just three targets. In week two, he finished with zero catches on one target. Scotty Miller seemed like he would step into an expanded role after catching five balls for 72 yards in Tampa's season opener, but he finished with just two catches on three targets for 11 yard in week two. His only other target was a would-be TD pass that Brady gave him an opportunity to make a play on. Needless to say, he failed to make the grab. Shady McCoy was second on the team with five receptions for 26 yards on seven targets, but also dropped a (very well placed) would-be TD. The Bucs pulled off the victory in week two because they were bailed out by an exceptional 2-TD performance from Leonard Fournette who, by the way, is exactly what this offense needs to open things up. (More on that later) Brady could’ve had a much bigger fantasy day if not for those two dropped TD's. But the fact is, things played out how they did, Brady turned the ball over twice and only finished with 8.6 fantasy points in week two. Here is a list of notable QBs that outscored Brady in week two:
Brady had a cake matchup against a brutal Carolina defense, and he failed to deliver. But does that mean we should hit the panic button? I say no. Those looking at week two, strictly from a fantasy perspective, probably think Brady's final stats mean he played poorly. But the truth is, ProFootballFocus has Brady graded as the third-best QB in the league (87.8) through two weeks. What you have to understand is that PFF player grades add in layers of context that cannot be captured by conventional stats. They take into account a lot of external factors such as: whether or not passes are perfectly thrown or put in a spot where the receiver has to do all the work, defensive pass interference yards (which he had a surprising amount of in week two), plays called back by offensive penalties, etc. Only Aaron Rodgers (95.6) and Russell Wilson (92.7) rank higher than Brady so far. After two weeks of NFL football, there are a lot of wild conclusions being jumped to. People jumping ship on Tom Brady seems to be popular one. I'd just like to say, there are 16 games in an NFL season. If two weeks was a reliable sample size, we'd be making a bigger deal about the fact Mitchell Trubisky is on pace to throw for 40 TD's. Or the fact the Raiders are undefeated. Or the fact Russell Gage is on pace for 308 fantasy points. "Who?" you ask. Exactly. There's still plenty of time for Brady and the Bucs to recover and figure things out. Now, if he continues to turn the ball over and be hampered by the play of his teammates, then I'd say there is definitely cause for concern. But as of now, I firmly believe Tom Brady will have a few massive games this season. So, to recap, I'm not necessarily panicking on Brady, I do think he figures it out at some point this season. BUT... It could take a while to iron out the kinks. I personally am going to ride it out. I may not start him until I see it consistently, but I definitely would not drop him. If he starts to click with the weapons around him, it's going to be scary. If there's one thing I've learned consistently, for as long as I've been watching football, it's that the absolute last player you want to bet against is Tom Brady.  Photo courtesy of gettyimages.com Tom Brady cheers in excitment after throwing his first TD pass as a Buccaneer. 2. Leonard Fournette is the guy in Tampa
Bruce Arians and friends can act like Ronald Jones is their guy all they want but at the end of the day, it’s clear to see Leonard Fournette is the superior player. Plain and simple, he gives them the best chance to win. Uncle Lenny finished with 100+ yards and two TD's on just 12 carries in week two. His second touchdown came at a critical moment for the Bucs late in the fourth quarter. His 46-yard scoring dash effectively iced the game for the Bucs who were only up by one score at the time. He also drew a lot of attention from TB12 in the pass game, catching four passes on five targets. Personally, I believe what Fournette provides as an explosive runner, is exactly what this offense is missing. Ronald Jones has flashed talent, but overall his efficiency has left something to be desired (3.7 YPC). The fact is, RoJo just isn't a player that strikes fear into the heart of an opposing defense. Unlike Fournette. During his time in Jacksonville, Fournette faced stacked boxes at a higher rate than any other running back in the league. That should tell you all you need to know about how defenses feel about him. Unlike the Jaguars for the past couple years, the Bucs actually have a passing game that needs to be respected. Leonard Fournette + Brady, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and two very talented TE's = a defenses worst nightmare. If they get defenses into a position to commit to stopping the run, Brady will eat them alive with his arm. If they commit to playing the pass, Fournette will eat them alive with his legs. In week three, the Bucs play the Broncos who are well-aware of what Fournette is capable of. Last season, in his one game against the Broncos, Lenny rushed for a career-high 225 yards on 29 carries (7.8 YPC). If you don't think they're terrified of him, you're wrong. Forget what he offers as a rusher, the intimidation factor he provides is what is going to keep defenses honest. Don't even get me started on how he has developed into a reliable pass-catcher. (Career-high 76 receptions in 2019) I suspect the Bucs come to their senses as early as next week and commit to Fournette as an every down back. And if not next week, well... It's only a matter of time. 3. The age of the mobile QB is upon us It seems like this season more than any other has made it increasingly clear that mobile quarterbacks are the key to success in fantasy football. Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, and Josh Allen all went off for over 30 fantasy points this past week. They each had an excellent game as a passer, but none (except Allen) would have scored over 30 without the production they provide as rushers. The thing about non-mobile QB's like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, or Matt Ryan is, if the passing production isn't there, the fantasy points aren't either. You are then left with a low floor. For example: it wasn’t a good fantasy week for Lamar Jackson (by his standards) he threw for less yards than, and as many touchdowns as, Brady in week two. BUT thanks to rushing for 50 yards (and not turning the ball over twice) he outscored him by nine points. Two QB's could finish with the same amount of passing yards and passing TD's but it is the guy who picks up yards and TD's with his legs that can afford to slack as a passer. 4. Jonathan Taylor does not disappoint In his first game as a starter, Jonathan Taylor proved to the world he could be a true workhorse at the NFL level. In week two, Taylor took his 26 carries for 101 yards and a touchdown, making guys miss and passing the eye test on his way to a 19.0 (PPR) point performance. After seeing the way things played out (backfield touches-wise) it's probably safe for us to pump the brakes on Nyheim Hines, myself included. After an impressive week one where he was an integral part of the running and receiving game, he received just one touch in week two, taking a backseat to Taylor. I suspect that Hines will be an up-and-down producer all season having seven catches when you decide to sit him and only touching the ball five times when you decide to use him. Taylor, on the other hand, remains a must-start for the rest of the season. He is currently a top 10-15 back for me at the moment with the opportunity to firmly establish himself in the top-10. I personally am excited to watch it play out. 5. Josh Allen = elite The athleticism was never in question, it was always his capability as a passer. He went from never throwing for 300+ yards in a game, to beginning the season by doing it twice in a row, stacking back-to-back 30-point fantasy performances in the process. He already provided you with a high-floor as a rusher, but this leap forward as a passer makes him un-sittable. I know he played two brutal defenses in the Jets and Dolphins, but in my opinion, Allen has shown more than enough as a passer to trust him as a top-five QB moving forward. New addition Stefon Diggs and trusted weapon John Brown are providing Allen with all the production he could possibly ask for. Diggs currently has the fifth-most receptions in the league and is WR4 in fantasy through two games. From what we've seen, he is easily one of the best draft-day bargains this season. Brown has at least 70 yards, a TD, and 18.0 fantasy points in both games this season. He is currently WR9 in fantasy. He was a PPR machine last season, and it looks like that is going to carry over into 2020. There was concern (on my end) about whether or not there would be enough volume to go around for these two, considering Allen's history as a lackluster passer. But those concerns have been laid to rest. As a Jets fan, it pains me to say this, but if what we've seen is an indication of things to come, I'm all-in on the Bills-mafia's passing attack this season. After a week where so many players went down (some for the season) with significant injuries, fantasy owners everywhere are left feeling distraught. Although things may seem grim at the moment, its important to know: there’s still time to recover. Even if you lost your best player, or more than one of them, it’s imperative (now more than ever) to keep your head up. After seeing the Cowboys pull off the most miraculously electrifying improbable win in modern football history in week two, you have to realize: even the most impossible-seeming comeback can be completed. All you have to do is show up and believe. I've said it before but I'll say it again: now is no time to be feeling sorry for yourself soldier! The season is still young. The last thing you should be doing is throwin' in the towel. You've got a league to win. Without further ado, I will break down (by position) players that should be available in your league that could help you fill the potential holes left in your roster after week two. DISCLAIMER: This list will only feature players rostered in less than 50 percent of ESPN leagues. I have them listed in order of my own personal preference, but I will provide you with enough info for you to make an informed decision for yourself. Running backs: 1. Joshua Kelley (LAC) Kelley has been receiving a surprisingly generous amount of volume these past two weeks. He's finished with at least 60 yards rushing and 12.0 (PPR) points in both games this season. In week two, Kelley was given a staggering 25 touches and finished with 113 total yards. Although Austin Ekeler was clearly more efficient with his touches, and is still a low-end RB1 in my opinion, he received seven carries less than Kelley in week two. If things continue this way, Kelley could work his way into the RB2 discussion if it turns out he's filling the Melvin Gordon role for the Chargers. Which appears to be the case. He's owned in just 27.9 percent of ESPN leagues. Based on volume alone, he is an ideal plug-and-play for an RB-needy team. 2. Jerrick McKinnon (SF) McKinnon has already been solid this season, scoring a TD and at least 13.0 PPR points in back-to-back games. He has just six carries for 106 yards so far. With Raheem Mostert expected to miss at least two weeks with an MCL sprain, McKinnon will be even more involved than he has been already. As I write this, it has come to my attention that Tevin Coleman is also dealing with a knee injury. I just received the notification that he’s expected to miss “multiple weeks,” which makes McKinnon that much more valuable. Think about it... He will be the RB1 in a Kyle Shanahan offense for the next two weeks. He is rostered in just 19.3 percent of ESPN leagues. Go scoop him now. 3. Mike Davis (CAR) With Christian McCaffery expected to miss at least 4-6 weeks thanks to a high-ankle sprain, Mike Davis becomes the panthers RB1. He only had one rush in week two, but that could be attributed to negative game script and the fact that McCaffery plays 97 percent of the Panthers snaps. After McCaffery exited however, Davis was heavily involved, catching all eight of his targets for 74 yards. He finished with 15.5 (PPR) points on receptions alone. To recap, Davis is a good receiving back, currently atop the depth chart on a team that is top-six in RB targets per game, with a QB who likes to throw it short. At this moment, he is available in 99.2 percent of ESPN leagues. 4. Myles Gaskin (MIA) The fact he’s on the Dolphins is the only reason he isn’t higher on this list. I was skeptical after week one, but Gaskin has now put together back-to-back games of at least 10.0 (PPR) points, 40 rush yards AND four receptions. Gaskin has displayed promise as a rusher and a pass-catcher so far. He’s averaging 5.3 YPC and 6.2 YPR on the season... behind the Dolphins offensive line... Granted, it is a small sample size, but an encouraging one nonetheless. He is currently owned in just 13 percent of ESPN leagues. 5. Jamaal Williams (GB) Williams has proved in the past he is a more-than-capable receiver out of the backfield. Last year, there were times when both Aaron Jones AND Williams were start-able. In 2019, Williams had seven games with three or more catches, and five games with four or more. At one point, he had a four-game receiving-TD streak. During those four weeks, he logged fantasy finishes of 23.6, 13.1, 18.6, and 16.9 (PPR) points. Davante Adams could potentially miss some time with an apparent hamstring injury, and since the Packers other pass-catchers have proved to be less than stellar, Williams could be in line for an increase in touches. Last week, he rushed for an impressive 63 yards on just eight carries. Williams is a talented player on a very good offense. If he resumes his role from a season ago, he would be a solid PPR flex/RB3. He is currently owned in just 12.6 percent of ESPN leagues. 6. Dion Lewis (NYG) / Devonta Freeman(NYG?) Lewis is the first in line to see an expanded role now that Saquon Barkley is out for the season with a torn ACL. He found the end-zone last week and finished with 15.6 PPR points. The only reason I don’t have him higher, is because the Giants are reportedly bringing in Devonta Freeman for a workout. I find it hard to believe they don’t sign him. Even without having played in a while, he’d be a vast improvement over the G-men's current RB2 Wayne Gallman. Both Lewis and Freeman have been VERY fantasy relevant in the past, but while splitting reps, I’m not exactly confident in either as anything more than a TD-dependent flex for now. Others to keep an eye on: Darrell Henderson (LAR), Frank Gore (NYJ), Giovani Bernard (CIN) Wide Receivers: 1. N'keal Harry (NE) For the second straight week, Harry tied Julian Edelman for the team-lead in receptions. In a game where the game script called for Cam Newton to pass, Harry had 12 targets, eight receptions and over 15.0 (PPR) points. I wish I had more evidence to support this theory, but I expect Harry takes the leap forward this year and provides consistent production as one of Cam’s clear favorite targets. He is owned in just 39.6 percent of ESPN leagues, and if my gut is correct, this will likely be most people’s last week to snag him. 2. Russell Gage (ATL) Gage is in a very crowded WR room, and yet he has drawn 9+ targets and scored over 16.0 (PPR) points in back-to-back games to begin the 2020 season. Matt Ryan has been lighting it up lately and he’s been looking Gage’s way quite a bit. There are few WR's on the waiver-wire that have received as much love as Gage this season. There’s no guarantee this production continues with the amount of exceptional pass catchers on the Falcons offense, but what if it does? So far it’s been working out. Why not ride the train while you can? Gage is currently available in about 80 percent of ESPN leagues. 3. Corey Davis (TEN) Davis has stacked back-to-back respectable fantasy performances to begin the 2020 season. In week one, he finished with 101 yards and 17.1 (PPR) points. In week two, he made an impressive TD catch and finished with 12.6 (PPR) points. For those of you that haven't noticed, Ryan Tannehill has playing like an elite quarterback since week 10 of last season. Davis is a former first-round talent, and if this is the year he finally figures it out, you're going to want him on your team. I’m not necessarily saying that’s the case, BUT he has played well enough to warrant flex consideration. Once AJ Brown returns, it’s likely that Davis's production will take a hit. But that might not be for several weeks. For now, he appears to be the Titans WR1. He is owned in just 35.3% of ESPN leagues 4. Keelan Cole/Laviska Shenault (JAX) Cole has a TD, and at least five catches/15.7 points in back-to-back games to begin 2020. With Gardner Minshew looking like a seasoned pro in his second season (six passing TD's in two games) Cole has been enjoying flex-level productivity. If he emerges as Minshew's second favorite target, he could become very fantasy relevant. With DJ Chark reportedly dealing with an injury of his own, he just might be Minshew's first favorite target this week. Cole is currently available in 98 percent of ESPN leagues. Another one of Minshew's weapons, Shenault now has 9.0 (PPR) points in back-to-back weeks. What’s interesting about him is that the Jags have been using him as a gadget player. He already has a receiving TD this season and in week two, he carried the ball five times for 37 yards (just over 7.0 YPC). It’s clear to see the Jags are trying to get him the ball, and considering the talent, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few multi-TD games this season. He is currently owned in just 13.1% of ESPN leagues. 5. Chase Claypool (PIT) He's currently third in line behind JuJu and Diontae Johnson for Steelers WR targets, but he showed off his big play ability in week two on a 70-yard TD pass from Big Ben. He finished with 17.8 (PPR) points on just three catches. He's currently averaging 25.4 yards per reception, which has me thinking he could end up being the new Martavis Bryant... Big Ben certainly has the pedigree as a passer to see to it that three of his receivers finish with over 1,000 yards, but as of now I would only feel comfortable playing Claypool in a very deep league. The talent is definitely there, it’s just a question of volume for him until we see consistent production. But if you wanted to take a shot on someone based on talent alone he’s your guy. He's currenrtly available in 92.6 percent of ESPN leagues. 6. KJ Hamler (DEN) With Courtland Sutton out for the season with a torn ACL, and Jerry Jeudy dealing with an apparent concussion, the rookie Hamler is primed to step into an expanded role. Noah Fant is currently the teams top pass-catcher with Melvin Gordon as a close second. After that, it’s anyone’s game. Of course Jeff Driskel might be a bit of a downgrade over Drew Lock, which makes this pick less appealing. But there is opportunity for Hamler to step up. He did finish with the team lead in targets (7) in week two (his rookie debut). He is available in 98.9 percent of ESPN leagues. Others to keep an eye on: Hunter Renfrow (LV), Scotty Miller (TB), Brandon Aiyuk (SF)  Photo courtesy of NFL.com
Fantasy owners took a big hit in week two as Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffery (among several others) suffered significant lower body injuries. |
AuthorTim Brosnan, Fantasy Sports Analyst/Freelance Journalist About: Tim Brosnan is a college-educated sports journalist from the New Haven, Connecticut area. Featured on: https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/09/8-waiver-wire-stashes-fantasy-football/ https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/11/14-players-to-buy-low-sell-high-fantasy-football-november-2021/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nfl_article&utm_content=14-players-to-buy-low-sell-high-fantasy-football-november-2021 The Playbook by CommishFFP thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Brosnan earned his Bachelor's Degree from Castleton University where he majored in Media & Communication, with a focus in Journalism. During his tenure as the sports editor of the Castleton Spartan newspaper, Brosnan created the segment 'Tim's Fantasy Tips'. It began as a simple weekly start/sit column, but since then, the idea has grown into so much more. Brosnan has taken his experience/passion for pro football/fantasy sports and combined it with his journalistic know-how in order to bring you a completely original, well-informed, multi-layered fantasy football advice experience. We hope you enjoy. Archives
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