What We Learned: Week 12
Check back here every week to listen to Tim: analyze what we saw, discuss who's trending up or down, and jump to some wild conclusions.
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Has Ja'Marr Chase been figured out? Chase through seven weeks:
Chase the past four weeks:
It’s fair to ask the question: has Ja'Marr Chase been figured out? With half of a season worth of tape on him, it would appear to be the case. Do I necessarily think that’s possible for a player as talented as him? Temporarily, I do. But now there is a month’s worth of tape on what defenses are doing to slow him down. I’ll go on record right now and say I think he adapts/adjusts and figures it out. When, however, is anyone's guess. At the moment, he goes from a borderline WR1 to a sort of sketchy WR2 until he gets it going again. If you play in a dynasty league, this may be the best (and only) chance you’ll ever get to buy-low, and I highly recommend making a play for him. Although he may have hit a bit of a rookie wall, he’s going to be special for many years. Is Aaron Jones Chopped Liver? After finishing as a top-five fantasy RB in consecutive seasons (2019-2020), Aaron Jones' status as an RB1 seemed solidified. The #FreeAaronJones movement had been completed, fantasy fans everywhere rejoiced. But by week 13 2021, it seems like we’re going to have to get our picket signs back from out of the basement and protest once more. So far this season, Jones has just three games north of 20 PPR points. He has four games with single-digit PPR points, three of which have come in his last five games. He hasn’t delivered an RB1 performance since week eight. He hasn’t topped 60 yards rushing since week six. He’s rushed for 25 yards (or less) in three of his last five games. He has just one game with more than 12 carries during that span. He is currently sitting at RB11 in PPR scoring and most of it is being buoyed by his massive 41-point game against the Lions in week two. Without that, he’s arguably a borderline RB2. I hate to say it, but he looks like chopped liver. A lot of it has to do with AJ Dillon of course. Dillon is simply too talented not to have a role and, quite frankly, is outshining Jones lately. They activated Jones for week 12, only to have him take a back seat to Dillon in snaps, carries, receptions, yards AND fantasy points. In two and a half games as the Packers RB1, Dillon has more games with 20+ carries than Jones has all season. That alone should tell you all you need to know. At this point, you can’t trade Jones for anything close to a decent ROI. I personally offloaded Jones a few weeks ago because I saw the writing on the wall, but even I couldn’t predict how much love Dillon would get, and how much he’d make the most of his opportunities. If your trade deadline hasn’t passed, the best you can hope for is for Jones to go off once more and then try to get rid of him for face value, because at this point I’m afraid he’s going to finish in low-end RB2 territory. I’d be worried about starting him going into the fantasy playoffs. Cordarelle Patterson is an RB1 He just is. There’s no ifs, ands, or buts about it. The last time he didn’t finish with either a TD, 100 total yards or double-digit touches was week one (if you don’t count the week 10 game where he got hurt). After a massive 100-yard, 27-point, two-TD performance in week 12, Patterson now has 18+ (PPR) points in 6/9 full games this season. He has no less than 14 points in any full game since week one. Remember how I said I got rid of Aaron Jones above? That was on a team where I trusted Cordarelle Patterson as my RB1 for the rest of the season. That’s how much I believe in his talent and his role in this Arthur Smith offense. ProFootballFocus actually has him graded as the best RB in football after twelve weeks, just slightly above Jonathan Taylor. I will go ahead and crown him as the waiver-wire steal of the year right here and now. I will also crown him as a RB1, or WR1, or just the ultimate flex. Whatever you want to call him. He is, plain and simple, one of the best players in fantasy football for the rest of the year, despite a difficult schedule upcoming.  Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
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Joe Mixon flying under the radar In a week where it felt like just about every RB1 finished with 20+ points (Cook, Swift, CMC, Conner, Chubb, etc.) guys like Jonathan Taylor and Austin Ekeler stood out above the rest. But there’s one name that has been flying under the radar. Joe Mixon has quietly been one of the most reliable RBs in fantasy for the last six weeks. After a 120-yard two-TD performance in week 11, he’s now delivered at least 24.3 (PPR) points, and finished with at least 90 total yards in four of his last five games. He has seven (that’s right, SEVEN) games in a row with at least one TD. And yet, it seems like nobody is talking about him. It feels like nobody is giving him the credit he deserves. If you ask me, he has officially settled the debate this season. There can no longer be any doubt. Joe Mixon is a bonafide RB1, and a lock as a top-15 overall pick in next years drafts. Should you worry about Russell Wilson? Yes. You should. The appeal when drafting Russell Wilson this season, at least for me, stemmed a lot from Matthew Berry’s “100 facts for the 2021 fantasy football season” Influenced by this, I felt safe selecting Wilson in several drafts this season. Now, this is not me blaming Matthew Berry. After all, the article is called 100 FACTS because at the time that’s what they were. The first five on the list have to do with Russ. Over the past three seasons, only two QBs had 30+ games with multiple TD passes. Patrick Mahomes and Wilson. Wilson was THE ONLY QB with at least 30 TD passes in each of the last two seasons. Before 2021, he had done that in four straight seasons. Only Lamar Jackson and Cam Newton had more rushing yards than Wilson during that span. The last time he didn’t finish as a top-10 fantasy QB, Tim Tebow and Mark Sanchez were starting in the NFL. Last but not least (and this one was my favorite) he had never missed a game in his NFL career. Add that all up, and how could you possibly go wrong with Russ as your QB1? Well. It figures that the year I’m confident in all this knowledge is the year it all goes out the window. Not only has he missed several games for the first time, he isn’t rushing like he normally does. At this point last season, Wilson had seven games with five or more rush attempts and 20+ rushing yards. So far in 2021 (granted he missed some time) he has just two such games. He had just one game with less than 10 fantasy points last season. He is three for his last three in that category, and has yet to score a TD since week four. So yeah, I’m a little worried about Russ. That being said, I have faith he pulls through. I just don’t know if you can start him in fantasy until he does. How bout them Eagles? Don’t look now, but the Eagles defense may be a league-winner. After an 11-point performance (three TO’s, one TD) against the Saints, they’re now averaging 10.5 fantasy PPG over their last four games. And that’s including a -3-point performance against the Chargers in week nine. Remove that game, and they’re averaging 14 fantasy PPG since week seven. They’ve (when I say they I mean Darius Slay) have a TD in three of their last four games. During this span, Philly has racked up five TO’s and seven sacks. But this isn’t why I say the Eagles will be league-winners. You may want to sit down for this next part. Are you ready? Their remaining opponents: @NYG, NYJ (week 14 BYE) WAS, NYG again, WAS again. They are currently the ninth-highest scoring fantasy D/ST, and are owned in just 12.6 percent of ESPN leagues. Sure, anything can happen. But knowing their opponents and the way they’ve played recently, what do you think is most likely to happen? I know which side of the fence I’m on. It’s time for you to pick one because, once the rest of your league notices their remaining schedule, they could quickly become a hot commodity. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Buy Low on Jalen Hurts He has a negative matchup this week, a bye on the horizon, and is coming off the three worst fantasy performances of his career. There will never be a better time to get Hurts on your fantasy team. It’s not always pretty (less than 200 passing yards in five of his last six games), but he still provides an ELITE rushing floor (just three games with less than 50 rush yards this season, no less than 30 in any game). You have to keep in mind, he has started less than one full season’s worth of games. He’s steadily improving, and when he figures it out he is going to be scary. Like prime Cam Newton/Russell Wilson scary. At least, for fantasy football purposes anyways. He has a lot of dynasty appeal, but I still love him this season for redraft leagues as well. Why? So glad you asked. He is playing against the rest of the NFC East (including two games against Washington) during the fantasy football playoffs. Strike while the iron is hot, and buy-low while you can. Super Cam is Baaaack Riding the momentum Cam Newton provided, the Panthers stomped the best team in the league, with authority. He has made an immediate impact on a team that retains much of the same core it had when he left. He was seen on the sideline leading the huddle, commanding the respect of his teammates just three days after (re)signing with the team. If there’s any organization that knows what Cam is capable of, its the Panthers. If he is truly back, there isn’t a spot in the NFL you’d rather him be than Carolina. It feels like he has returned home and nature is healing. If he can score 11 fantasy points on two touches (more points than Jared Goff in a game that went to OT) I’m excited to see what he can do when they open up the playbook for him and turn him loose. I’m not saying he is an immediate fantasy QB1, because the most recent sample of him as a starting QB was not incredibly promising. BUT… I’m also not going to deny he could just as easily become the fantasy monster we once knew him as. As you saw on Sunday, he is still one of the leagues premier red zone weapons. In week ten, Newton became the first QB to score a TD on his first rush of the season, and throw a TD on his first pass of the season in 30 years. As for Sam Darnold? He just lost his job. Without question. I mean, a man who hasn’t played one snap of football this season just provided the team with more of a spark than Darnold has in the last six weeks. He may as well start packing his things now because chances are he’s not in Carolina next season. It may be time to sell Damien Harris Harris has served fantasy managers well this season. Before missing week ten with a concussion, he had scored (at least) a rushing TD in five straight games. He has three games with over 100 yards rushing this season, and even after missing a game, he is RB20 in PPR scoring. There. You can use that information when trying to sell him this week. The reason I say that is because Rhamondre Stevenson is a beast. In Harris’s absence, Stevenson took his 20 carries for 100 yards and two TDs. There were a few encouraging things about this game from a fantasy perspective, unless you own Damien Harris that is. For one, Stevenson finished with an impressive 27.4 PPR points, which is more points than Harris has in any game this season. What else? Stevenson caught four passes on five targets (his second game with three or more targets/receptions this season). Harris has never been targeted more than three times OR caught more than two passes in a game in his entire NFL career. So, clearly the Pats believe Rhamondre brings something to the table as a receiver that Harris does not. Moving forward, best-case scenario for Harris owners is he takes the Legarette Blount role and Stevenson takes the James White role. But the thing with Stevenson is, he offers the best of both roles. He is like a Legarette Blount who can operate as a pass catcher, or a James White that can actually run between the tackles. Either way he lacks the weakness of the opposite player. Harris however, although he is explosive/very effective on the goal line, doesn’t offer that same kind of versatility. Well… Not to overreact, but the dynamic Stevenson (who had an incredible preseason by the way) just made a strong case for more playing time this past week. If that means he eats in Harris’s workload even a little it spells doom because (with no receiving floor to fall back on) he basically depends on lions share volume for fantasy value. I feel like it’s time to get out while you can. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Mike Williams' Downward Slide The old Mike Williams has reared his ugly head. I’m sorry Mike, that was mean. You’re not ugly. It’s just an expression. What was I saying again? Oh yeah, fantasy football. After a ridiculous start to the season (weeks 1-5) where Mike Will averaged 10 targets, 23.2 fantasy points, 94.2 yards per game and racked up six TDs, he was beginning to look like the receiver we all expected him to be coming out of Clemson. It has, unfortunately, been all downhill from there. Williams has now delivered three consecutive single-digit fantasy performances, which makes that four out of his last five. He has not seen more than five targets or caught more than two passes at any point during this span. Thanks to a 50-yard bomb in week nine, he at least topped 27 yards this time. So, there’s that. Unfortunately there hasn’t been much of anything else… Except disappointment. But this is the same old story with Williams, isn’t it? He embodies the term boom-or-bust. He has one of the highest ceilings of any receiver I’ve ever seen (12 career games with 21+ fantasy points, 3 games with 30+) But he also tends to disappear entirely at times (28 games with less than 10 fantasy points post-rookie year). I’m not saying he isn’t starting material for fantasy any more, but all of a sudden, there’s going to be a lot more caution involved. I hate to break it you but your window to trade him at WR1 value has closed. You either are going to have to offload him for whatever you can get, or continue to ride the rollercoaster. Tee Higgins is the New Robert Woods By that I mean: there’s nothing sexy about throwing him into your lineup, but you can always trust him. Higgins has been nothing but a model of consistency through two years in the NFL. He may not have a huge ceiling, but the man is a walking double-digit PPR game. No, literally. He has now registered double-digit fantasy points in 16 of his 21 career games (76 percent). He has had AT LEAST 13 points (or more) in 13 of those 16 games. He’s been targeted seven or more times in 14 of his 21 games. But get ready for this next one… So far, he doesn’t have one full game, in his NFL career, with less than five targets. Not one. Isn’t that insane? When you start Tee Higgins, you know what you’re going to get. A reception hog with a safe floor. Exactly what Robert Woods used to be, and what he’s getting back to being. But that is a takeaway for another time. Sam Darnold Belongs on the Bench Not just in fantasy, but in real life. I was an advocate of his talent for the last year. I’ve gone on record saying that he would have a bounce back season as the starting QB of the Panthers. After an impressive start, that seemed like a great call. I might have even taken a small victory lap. Weeks 1-4, Darnold had no less than 18 fantasy points in any game, 10 total TDs, and nearly matched his career 300-yard game totals with the Jets in less than five games. But since then, he has been arguably the worst starting QB in the NFL. Not only have the Panthers lost five of their last six games after a 3-0 start, Darnold is responsible for nine turnovers and just two TDs during that span. He has failed to throw for 175 yards or score a TD in each of his last three games. Since week five, he has topped 200 passing yards one time. He is literally averaging 6.6 fantasy points per game. Disastrous is the first word that comes to mind. The worst part about it is, DJ Moore (who began the season with 20+ points in three of his first four games) is suffering as a result. He has no more than 13 PPR points in any game since week five, and is averaging just 9.9 PPG. Not that I think PJ Walker is the answer, but at this rate, Sam Darnold simply cannot be allowed to continue to drag this team down. Although, it may already be too late… Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Houston's Backfield Is A Mess You would think after Mark Ingram was traded, David Johnson or Phillip Lindsay would be in line to see increased touches. Instead it was Rex Burkhead who led the backfield in receptions and total touches in week eight. Just like we all planned. But he wasn’t even the one who led the team in carries. It wasn’t Lindsay or Johnson either. Instead, it was Scottie Phillips who paced the Texans with five carries. Because that makes total sense, right? For those of us hoping for an increased role for Johnson, a player who has proved his fantasy worth as a receiving back multiple times over (including last year’s fantasy playoffs) it looks like we’re SOL. Even in a game where they were trailing for it’s entirety and were in a pass-heavy game script, David Johnson touched the ball just three times. Phillip Lindsay has struggled with efficiency all year. The former 1,000-yard rusher appears to be chopped liver at this point, playing just 13 percent of snaps, and is not worth weekly fantasy consideration. I wouldn’t recommend any Houston RB, but it appears Rex Burkhead is the one who benefited most from the departure of Ingram. The former Patriot played on 49 percent of Texans snaps this week and is, at the very least, worth a flex stash. Michael Carter Breakout Campaign Starting To Take Shape In week eight, nobody’s stock went up more than Michael Carter. With Mike White under center, it appears the rookie RB has finally broken out. Carter’s role has grown over the past month, outscoring his previous fantasy total for four consecutive weeks. He now has four games in a row with double-digit PPR points. He has played 70+ percent of snaps two weeks in a row. The Jets have shown that Carter is their preferred goal-line back, which is ideal for fantasy purposes. But perhaps the best/most surprising part of this recent swing is his involvement in the receiving game. In two games with Mike White under center, Carter has a combined 23 targets, 17 receptions and 162 receiving yards. In week eight, Carter took his season-high 24 touches for 172 total yards, a TD and a career-high 32.2 fantasy points. He now has no less than 14.8 points in any game since week four. With top RBs dropping like flies, I’d try to trade for Carter if you can. He has two tough matchups in a row, but after that, three incredibly soft ones. He will also be facing both Miami and Jacksonville in the fantasy playoffs. All of a sudden, Carter has entered the high-end RB2 conversation, with a chance to push for RB1 numbers. That sounds insane to say about someone who plays for the Jets, but let’s be honest, they have proved to be scrappier than anyone had imagined this season. Terry McLaurin Rollercoaster Continues After another disappointing performance from the Washington offense, Terry has officially become the poster-child for the term “boom or bust”. After a three-catch, 6.3-point performance against the Broncos, McLaurin now has 10.2 points or less in five of his eight games this season. He is clearly an outstanding talent, with 25 or more (PPR) points in his other three games, but despite averaging 10 targets per game McLaurin has been largely unreliable. It pains me to say that about one of my favorite players, but at the same time I refuse to admit it is his own fault. He has never had consistent high-level QB play, and that’s just a fact. Unfortunately, it looks like that isn’t going to change anytime soon, as long as Taylor Heinicke remains at QB for the Football Team. Heinicke started relatively hot, with multiple TDs in three of his first four games. He has just three total TDs in the four games since. As much as I hate to say it, until Fitzpatrick returns Terry can’t be considered a set-it and forget-it. He is more accurately considered a low-end WR2 with WR1 upside. Excuse me while I go into the other room and cry. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Kyle Pitts is Who We Thought He Was Turns out Kyle Pitts is who we thought he was: a generational TE talent. Or at least, that’s what most of us thought he was. Those of us who watched the tape, or paid any attention to his measurables anyway. Pitts naysayers were quick to bang the drum and take a victory lap after a sluggish start, but it didn’t take him very long to not only justify his ADP, but set an historic pace. In just two weeks, Pitts has gone from fantasy TE14 and a “bust” to TE4 on a PPG basis and potentially the best rookie TE of all-time. It’s too early to call just yet, but thanks to consecutive performances of 9-119-1 and 7-163, he now has the most yards by a rookie TE through six games in NFL history. He is also the youngest TE in history with at least 150 yards in a game. Needless to say, he’s on pace for several rookie TE records, and a stellar career. Not for nothing, but he may have also passed Calvin Ridley as the primary pass-catcher on the Falcons offense. In the words of Brett Kollman, “Pitts is on pace for nearly 1,200 yards this season and the Falcons didn’t figure out how to use him until like two weeks ago. Dude is different.” If you read my blog, you’d know I said something similar while telling you to target Pitts in 2021 drafts. Is this relevant? No. Does it give me an excuse to toot my own horn? Yes, yes it does. If you drafted Pitts, congrats. You now have an excuse to toot your own horn as well. What's Going On With Calvin Ridley? Speaking of Ridley… There is something very bizarre going on. Despite averaging over 10 targets per game and playing on an average of 86.4 percent of snaps this season, he has yet to top 80 yards or 19.5 (PPR) points in any game. Why? There’s no way he isn’t talented enough. I simply refuse to believe that. So why is he WR28 on a PPG basis? It’s not as if Matt Ryan isn’t playing well, or his surrounding talent isn’t taking attention away from him (see above section). So how is he averaging less PPG than Emmanuel Sanders or Sterling Shepard? How does he have less 20+ point games than Zach Pascal? It’s not as if he hasn’t had any positive matchups. The man’s most recent matchups were against Washington, the Giants and Miami for cryin’ out loud. So what the heck is going on? And where do we go from here? Do we sell? Hold? Buy-low? All I have is questions. Unfortunately, I don’t have many answers. All I know is you can’t sell at anything close to what he’s worth if whoever you’re trying to trade with has been paying attention. I guess you can buy-low, if the price is right. But with Kyle Pitts emerging, and some of his best matchups already behind him, I’m not entirely convinced you want to. My brain says he’s seeing too many looks and is too talented to continue to underperform, but my heart has already been broken by him. My official advice is to hold/buy-low and hope for the best, because at this point hope is all we can do. Dropping Allen Robinson is NOT Out of The Question Through seven weeks, Allen Robinson has quite possibly been the biggest bust in all of fantasy football. He has single-digit PPR points in 6/7 games this season. He has no more than 10.4 points or 63 yards in any game. He’s finished with less than 40 yards in 5/7 and has just one game with more than four catches. Everything I’ve seen from the Bears QB situation tells me it isn’t going to get much better. Fields looks brutal, currently sporting a 2:6 TD-INT ratio. Andy Dalton did target Robinson 11 times in week one during his only full game of the season, but it only amounted to 35 yards. To be honest, even with how bad Fields has been, I’m not sure Dalton starts another game for the Bears this season. It sounds crazy to dump Robinson, a player who was widely regarded as a second-round pick this season, but through seven games it has been nothing but pain. You can’t trust him enough to start him, and you won’t get anything but a bag of chips in a trade. My advice is to dump him (unless you’re in a super deep league) and let him become someone else’s problem. If you’ve been hanging on and hoping for the best so far, you’ve done nothing but burn a roster spot. Why put up with it any longer? Do yourself a favor: cut him and avoid a weekly headache. OR… Consider the fact I’m the one telling you to drop him, which means there’s about a 75 percent chance he returns to form and has several career games in a row, just because I jinxed him. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Darrell Henderson to the Moon Darrell Henderson has proved to be one of the best values of 2021 drafts. In five games this season, Henderson is averaging 96 scrimmage yards, and 18.2 (PPR) PPG. He has displayed an elite floor with no less than 16 touches or 15.7 points in any game. He’s getting it done as a receiver with at least one catch and 17 receiving yards in every game. He’s also proven to be a TD machine, with five total TDs in five games! This guy is kinda crazy. And yet, it still feels like he’s flying under the radar. After a two-TD, 24.7-point performance in week six, he can no longer be ignored. Well on his way to an 1,000-yard season as the lead back on one of the best scoring offenses in the league, the sky is the limit for Darrell Henderson. Or better yet, the moon. His next three games are against Detroit, Houston, and Tennessee. I’ll take one ticket on the Darrell Henderson rocket-ship please. Jonathan Taylor RB1 season has arrived After an odd first three weeks where Taylor didn’t find the end-zone, and finished with single-digit PPR points twice, concern was starting to develop. The panic button for the consensus first-rounder was looking more and more enticing by the week. But now the panic button feels like a distant memory. For the past three games JT has been elite. Taylor has racked up 441 scrimmage yards, five total TDs, and 81.1 PPR points over the last three weeks. In other words: an average of 147 yards and 27 points per game. No less than 114 yards or 20.4 points in any game during this span. Hopefully you bought low while you could because you’ve more than missed your chance my friend. If you held strong, congrats on the diamond hands. Your RB1 has arrived. Amari Cooper is a flex It may be time to face facts and accept the harsh reality. Amari Cooper is a flex. It sounds crazy, I know. After an explosive week one, where he finished with a gorgeous 13-139-2 stat-line, leaving week one as the WR1 in PPR scoring, success has been hard to come by. In his five games since then, Cooper has:
His absolute max score during this span is just 15.9 points. He has fallen all the way down to WR16, which is being buoyed by his huge week one. Without that game, Cooper is averaging just 10.4 (PPR) PPG. Which would make him WR54 on PPG basis, just behind Marquez Callaway. With the emergence of Dalton Schultz, and CeeDee Lamb basically stealing the show for the past two weeks, I’m afraid Cooper has moved out of must-start territory. I’m not saying he shouldn’t be played. He still offers WR1 upside on any given week. But if this first quarter of the season is any indication, there’s more risk involved than originally anticipated. Expectations should simply be tempered moving forward, especially with Michael Gallup returning to the fray soon. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Waiver Gem TEs Continue to Shine If you’re like me, you either draft a TE very early, or very late. And I mean very late. I started Cameron Brate this week, if that helps put it into perspective. I’ll take any production I can get until I discover a reliable waiver-wire TE. A diamond in the rough, if you will. There’s one every year. Last year it was Logan Thomas. The year before it was Darren Waller, even Tyler Higbee for a late-season stretch. Unfortunately for me, I whiffed on this years two TE gems, but it may not be too late for you. If you’re a jerk like me (or owned George Kittle/Logan Thomas) look no further than Dawson Knox and Dalton Schultz. Knox now has a TD in four straight games. Dalton Schultz has six or more receptions in three straight games. They have more than proved their fantasy worth for the past month. Both were likely scooped up by last week, but they may still be out there. Knox and Schultz are still available in roughly 30 percent of leagues. Don’t be like me and wait to see it for “one more week” before you trust them. Grab them and start them now. They’ve earned it. If you secure one of them, be grateful for what you have, because some people don’t have tight ends. Justin Jefferson is the ALPHA I had been in denial for a while. Never about the fact that Jefferson was more physically gifted than Thielen, because that much is obvious. I was in denial that he was the alpha WR1 in this offense. Thielen has been productive for so long it almost seemed insulting to suggest a player that has been there for one year had snagged his crown. But it can no longer be written off. Over the last three weeks, Jefferson has averaged 7.3 receptions, 108.6 rec yards, and 22.2 fantasy points per game. While Thielen has seen his targets, receptions, rec yards, AND fantasy points decline in each game during this span. To be fair, Thielen had a 20+ yard reception called back in each of the past two games. He is still an incredibly talented WR that is one of the best bets in the league for a TD every week. This is not intended to be a diss on him at all. But make no mistake, Jefferson eats first. Time to Panic on AJB? In three full games this season, Brown has averaged 9.6 fantasy PPG. Some players averaging more: Zach Pascal, Quintez Cephus, KJ Osborn, Van Jefferson... You didn’t draft any of those guys nearly as high as AJ Brown (at least I hope you didn’t). Heck, you probably didn’t draft them at all. So why are they outproducing your WR1? I wish I could tell you, because I’d like to know myself. AJB has yet to register more than 50 yards in any game, and you can’t even blame the matchups. Arizona, Seattle, and Jacksonville (his opponents during his three full games) all have some of the worst graded CB groups in the league according to ProFootballFocus. Weeks 1-2 you could argue Julio Jones was eating into his targets (which were low to begin with on a run-first offense) but in week 3 with Julio inactive, he still came up short. Argh. I’m not ready to give up on a player as talented as AJ Brown, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t panicked. Enough so that benching him this week against the number one ranked Buffalo Bills defense is a strong possibility. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Cordarelle Patterson, very much a thing Despite playing no more than 40 percent of snaps in any game this season, it seems apparent that Cordarelle Patterson is the Falcons most effective offensive weapon thus far. I say offensive weapon because I’m not really sure what to call him. He can be played at both WR and RB in most leagues, he gets carries (at least six attempts in all four games so far, one rushing TD) but he also lines up as a WR and runs routes (has at least six targets and is averaging 74 rec. yards over last three games, four rec. TDs). Not to mention, he has already entered the ‘greatest returner of all time’ discussion. So what else can you call him but a damn weapon? Sure, Mike Davis has been solid, leading the backfield in snaps and carries, scoring no less than 10.2 points in any game this season, but it’s clear Patterson is the “RB/guy getting touches out of the backfield” to own in Atlanta. He has now outscored Davis three weeks in a row. He is simply too dynamic to ignore with his current volume/usage. After exploding for 34.6 points and three TDs in week four, he is averaging 24.9 PPG over his last three games, and is a must-add to all rosters. Sam Darnold...fantasy monster? Leaving the Jets was the best thing that could have ever happened to Sam Darnold. Who could have guessed that, right? Through four games, the former USC Trojan has 10 total TDs, (five rushing, most in the league) and just three turnovers. As of Sunday, he now has three consecutive games with 300+ passing yards. To put that into perspective, in his entire Jets career (38 games) Darnold threw for 300+ yards just four times. Right now, he’s 3/4 in that category to begin his Panthers career. He’s averaging 297.1 passing yards, and 23.7 fantasy points per game, with no less than 18.9 points in any game this season! With a receiving core as loaded as his, and Adam Gase no longer holding him back, it’s no wonder the talented young QB is having success. Darnold is quickly working his way into the fantasy QB1 discussion. Currently, he is QB5 just behind Tom Brady, and is *checks notes* available in over 80 percent of ESPN leagues… You know what to do people. Najee Harris is a bonafide RB1 If you drafted Harris as an RB1, looks like you got what you bargained for. While it’s true his efficiency is leaving much to be desired (has yet to rush for over 65 yards, could probably be blamed on his O-line). Still, he is averaging 22.8 fantasy points per game over the last three weeks. So, how’s he getting it done you ask? The answer: elite volume. The rookie workhorse is averaging 21.3 touches per game during the aforementioned span. The craziest part about his last three games? Harris has 25 receptions. Not only is that more than anyone on the Steelers weeks 2-4, it’s more than anyone in the league… DJ Moore is second with 24. No other Steelers RB is even coming close to Harris in snaps or touches this season, so I don’t see any reason why it shouldn’t continue. Just like Chancellor Palpatine said to a young Anakin Skywalker, “Najee, we will watch your career with great interest.” Start: Jameis Winston vs Washington Football Team Since his 5-TD performance in week one, Winston has cooled off significantly, but I think he heats back up this week. Coming off a season-high 226 yards passing, expect his numbers to continue their upward trend against a WFT secondary that is quickly making a case as worst in the league. Washington has allowed an average of 307 pass YPG, a TD-to-INT ratio of 10:1, and a league-high 27.8 fantasy PPG to opposing QBs. Most recently they were torched by Matt Ryan for 300 total yards, four TDs and 29.02 fantasy points. This is as good a week as any for Jameis to rack up points. Let’s just hope Taysom Hill doesn’t steal all the TDs again. - Tim Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
Click the link for their info and directions to the podcast thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Derrick Henry's receiving usage trending up In week three, Derrick Henry finished with three catches for 31 yards. This may not seem like a big deal until you put it into perspective. Never (and I mean never) in his five-year NFL career has Derrick Henry registered three consecutive games with at least three catches. Never in his career had he registered three such games in a single season! Through three games in 2021, that is no longer the case. Henry’s previous single-season career-high for receptions is just 19. His single-season career-high for receiving yards is just 206. He is currently on pace to break both of those totals by week six. He’s more than halfway there already. So, you’re telling me a 2,000-yard rusher, possibly the most dominant force in the league, is now going to be involved as a pass-catcher as well? As if he wasn’t lethal enough… Well folks, it may be too early to call it just yet, but there’s a chance we’re looking at the RB1 overall. Mike Williams is a MUST-START WR1 If you go back far enough on my twitter, you’ll see I’ve been a huge Mike Williams fan since he was at Clemson. I was willing to go as far as calling him a “generational 50/50 ball talent”. I wouldn’t throw that term around lightly. His sophomore year in the NFL, he finished with 10 TDs but just 664 yards on only 43 catches. The next season he finished with 1,000+ yards on 49 catches but was rocked by TD regression, only scoring twice. So, it’s been established he has the potential for double-digit TDs, and the potential to be a thousand-yard receiver. The talent has been there, it never left. It has always been a question of consistency. Well, this year he’s looking ready to finally put it all together. In the past two seasons, he was targeted 10+ times just thrice. We are three weeks into 2021 and he already has two such games, with no less than 9 targets in any game. Entering week four, Williams has 31 targets, 22 receptions, four TDs, is averaging 98.3 yards and 25.8 PPG. He is currently on pace to double his career-high in receptions and targets. If he is guaranteed the volume (which, so far, it seems he is) I don’t know if there’s any receiver I’m more willing to bet on than Mike Will. If this production continues, he is without a doubt THE steal of the 2021 fantasy season. Mattison is the Best Insurance Policy in Fantasy Dalvin Cook is excellent when he’s on the field. The only problem is: he’s not always on the field. It's fair to say of the consensus RB1s in fantasy, Dalvin Cook is the most injury-prone. Since entering the league in 2017, not once has he played more than 14 games in a season. In week three, Alexander Mattison showed (once again) why he is the most valuable insurance policy/rb4 stash you can ask for. Against the Seahawks, he received a ridiculous 34 touches, translating that into 23.1 fantasy points without even scoring a TD. Similar to Kareem Hunt, this is a guy talented enough to start on another team, and he’s serving as a stud RBs backup. Unfortunately he doesn’t have the same role as Hunt, which provides him with weekly flex value. BUT he is arguably just as valuable. With Mattison, you’re basically guaranteed RB1 production for a few games every year. He has some standalone value on your bench and provides leverage in trade negotiations, even if you don’t have Cook, and especially if you’re trading to the person who does. As of now, he is available in just over 35% of ESPN leagues. Tim's top three takeaways for each week can be found in 'The Playbook' brought to you by CommishFFP ! Subscribe to the newsletter today to get access to our in-depth analysis of happenings around the league, players trending up or down, Starts/Sits, streamers and much more sent directly to your email every Tuesday!
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AuthorTim Brosnan, Fantasy Sports Analyst/Freelance Journalist About: Tim Brosnan is a college-educated sports journalist from the New Haven, Connecticut area. Featured on: https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/09/8-waiver-wire-stashes-fantasy-football/ https://www.fantasypros.com/2021/11/14-players-to-buy-low-sell-high-fantasy-football-november-2021/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nfl_article&utm_content=14-players-to-buy-low-sell-high-fantasy-football-november-2021 The Playbook by CommishFFP thecommishffp.podbean.com/ Brosnan earned his Bachelor's Degree from Castleton University where he majored in Media & Communication, with a focus in Journalism. During his tenure as the sports editor of the Castleton Spartan newspaper, Brosnan created the segment 'Tim's Fantasy Tips'. It began as a simple weekly start/sit column, but since then, the idea has grown into so much more. Brosnan has taken his experience/passion for pro football/fantasy sports and combined it with his journalistic know-how in order to bring you a completely original, well-informed, multi-layered fantasy football advice experience. We hope you enjoy. Archives
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